Bitcoin implied volatility hits cycle low; analysts warn of hidden risks

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has fallen to the long-term support level of 36%, with price trading in a narrow range below $65,000. Adam Haeems, Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group, warned that in a low-volatility environment, reduced trading costs may attract traders to establish large directional bets and hedging positions; should the market break through key levels, market makers’ passive hedging could accelerate price movements, triggering a mean-reversion rebound in volatility. On market sentiment, Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, noted that demand for put options has clearly weakened, but demand for call options is equally absent—Glassnode describes this as “no one is paying for upside, and no one is paying for downside,” a condition often signaling that the market is nearing a cycle low. The divergence between DOGE and BTC price action further confirms the continued absence of speculative sentiment. Howard stated that the next key catalyst could be positive regulatory developments, such as the Clarity Act, driving institutional ETF inflows, while a breakdown in Hormuz Strait negotiations and inflationary shocks represent the primary downside risks.