Bitcoin implied volatility hits three-year low, long-term holders seen offloading positions

According to Huoxing Finance, on October 23, Bitwise released a report stating that Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience near $82,000, a level close to the cost basis of spot ETF holdings. Key support levels below include the short-term holder cost at approximately $74,800 and the real market average at around $77,600. The former serves as a reference for assessing short-term market direction, while the latter represents the price level at which half of all invested capital in the market is either in profit or loss. Together, these two levels form a price range that may act as a dividing line between bulls and bears. Bitcoin’s 30-day and 60-day trading ranges have narrowed to 1.8% and 3.0%, respectively, while at-the-money implied volatilities across all maturities have approached the lower end of their three-year distribution. Notably, the 3-month and 6-month implied volatilities are at the 0.8th and 0.2nd percentiles of their historical distributions, indicating that market pricing for future volatility has declined to extremely low levels. Year-to-date this week, net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $1.074 billion, coinciding with a rise in the spread between spot cumulative trading volume and ETF inflows, providing support for Bitcoin’s price and offsetting some macroeconomic pressures. However, realized profits in the market have also increased, particularly among long-term holders. Meanwhile, the net position change indicator for long-term holders is negative, suggesting they may be in a distribution phase—potentially one reason for Bitcoin’s prolonged consolidation.