Bitcoin Holds Key Support Amid Macro Pressure, Maintains Constructive Outlook Ahead of Year-End

ChainCatcher report: BTC OG insider whale agent Garrett Jin shared market insights, noting that the macro environment has significantly tightened this week, with Brent crude oil approaching $95 and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 4.8%. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have risen to approximately 70%. Under this pressure, Bitcoin experienced a minor pullback but successfully held the key support level at $76,600, subsequently rebounding to the upper end of the $77,000 range. On-chain cost base data shows that a substantial new supply zone has formed between $75,000 and $80,000, providing strong support at the bottom. The area between $80,000 and $82,500 represents the current primary resistance zone; a daily close above $82,500 followed by a successful retest will serve as a key signal of supply exhaustion. Regarding ETF flows, U.S. spot ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion in August, but September has seen bidirectional flows so far, with a single-day net outflow of about $237 million on Tuesday and a noticeable cooling in retail activity. On the downside, if the daily close falls below $76,600 and ETF flows, Coinbase premium, and 7-day net realized profit/loss all weaken simultaneously, it would constitute a clear warning signal. This Friday’s non-farm payrolls data will be the next major macro test; if the data comes in hotter than expected, it could reinforce rate hike expectations and put further pressure on the $76,600 support level.