BlockBeats report: On July 24, CryptoQuant data showed that the percentage of Bitcoin supply in profit rose from 46.2% on June 30 to 57.5% on July 22, surpassing 50% and approaching 60%. However, analysts note that while Bitcoin holders have generally returned to profitability, this alone is insufficient to confirm the onset of a new bull market.
CryptoQuant analysts state that past bear markets typically ended only when two conditions were met simultaneously: the 30-day simple moving average of the SOPR for long-term holders remained above 1, and the percentage of profitable Bitcoin supply rose above 64%.
This cycle previously experienced a failed breakout. From April 28 to June 1, the long-term holder SOPR averaged above 1 for 35 consecutive days, and the percentage of profitable supply rose to 67%; however, both metrics subsequently declined. Since then, the 30-day moving average of long-term holder SOPR has remained below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, indicating that on-chain transfers by long-term holders are still predominantly at a loss.
Meanwhile, spot market demand remains weak, while institutional Bitcoin allocation has rebounded. Analysts believe that although current profit indicators are improving, it remains to be seen whether the recovery can be sustained.