Huo Xing Finance reports that on April 16, CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten wrote that Bitcoin’s funding rate has fallen to its most negative level since 2023, and historical patterns suggest such signals often coincide with market bottoms. According to Glassnode data, the seven-day moving average of the funding rate has dropped to approximately -0.005%. The funding rate is a periodic payment between long and short traders in perpetual contracts, designed to align contract prices with the spot market. When the rate is positive, longs pay shorts, reflecting bullish sentiment; when negative, shorts pay longs, indicating bearish bias. Despite the funding rate remaining negative throughout March and April this year, Bitcoin rose from a range of $60,000–$65,000 to around $75,000. Historically, deeply negative funding rates have often coincided with Bitcoin’s阶段性 bottoms: during the March 2020 market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, Bitcoin fell to around $3,000; during China’s mining ban in 2021, it dropped to $30,000; during the FTX collapse in November 2022, it touched a low of approximately $15,000; and during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023, it briefly dipped below $20,000. Similarly, negative funding rates aligned with阶段性 lows during the unwinding of yen carry trades in August 2024 and the “Liberation Day” sell-off in April 2025. Sustained negative funding rates indicate that even as prices rise, short positions remain elevated. This divergence may suggest the market is climbing a “wall of worry,” with a large volume of short positions potentially acting as fuel for further price upside.
Bitcoin funding rate hits 2023 low; analysts signal potential bottom
MarsBitShare
Summary
Bitcoin funding rates have reached their most negative level since 2023, according to CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten. Glassnode data shows the seven-day moving average of the rate has fallen to -0.005%. Van Straten notes that similar funding rates in previous downturns coincided with Bitcoin’s market bottoms. Altcoins to watch may also experience movement as short positions accumulate. Historical data from 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 shows that negative funding rates often precede price rebounds. Current conditions suggest a potential reversal, with short-term positioning possibly fueling a rally.
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