BlockBeats news, on April 17, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently trading at $74,700, down 0.4% over the past 24 hours. Ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have boosted risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high on Thursday. Trump stated that the prospect of a permanent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran "looks very optimistic," claiming Iran has agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions, hand over nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz; however, Iran has not yet confirmed these concessions.
Meanwhile, the market is closely monitoring structural signals behind Bitcoin’s price movements. Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, said: “Such a deeply negative funding rate indicates that the market is heavily short. If Bitcoin continues to rise under these conditions, a large number of short positions could be liquidated, accelerating upward price momentum.” He expects that if the short base is forced to cover, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 within the next 30 to 60 days.
On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt offers another perspective: Bitcoin’s True Market Mean (TMM) shows that the average cost basis of active holders is currently above the current price, leaving holders collectively in a floating loss. Since 2016, sustained breaks below this mean have closely coincided with Bitcoin’s most severe downturns, including the 2018–2019 bear market (maximum drawdown of 57%, lasting 282 days) and the decline following the Luna and FTX collapses in 2022–2023 (maximum drawdown of 56%, lasting 339 days).
Analysts note that these two assessments are not mutually exclusive—the short squeeze triggered by extremely negative funding rates and the structural pressure from overall unrealized losses among active holders can coexist; the former may trigger a sharp price rise, but it could ultimately be absorbed by selling from the latter. The future direction may depend on whether the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran can be extended beyond its expiration next week.