ChainCatcher report: Market maker Wintermute stated that Bitcoin fell 2.43% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline, breaking below the $82,500 support level and retesting the $80,000 key level. On the macro front, rising energy prices and inflation concerns are replacing AI funding issues as the primary market risks. Bitcoin’s recent price movement has remained highly correlated with the Nasdaq and AI-related stocks, with ETF fund flows beginning to show bidirectional volatility.
Wintermute stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy statements will be key short-term catalysts. If Bitcoin fails to hold $80,000, the next key support level is $76,000; a sustained break below this level could push prices further down toward the $70,000 range. To regain an upward trend, Bitcoin must reclaims the $82,000 to $82,500 range in the short term. If the Fed adopts a hawkish stance, the market may reassess December rate hike expectations, raising yields and increasing downward pressure on Bitcoin; if the Fed preserves flexibility for a December decision, it could create conditions for a rebound.
The institution stated that, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision and the release of U.S. Q3 GDP and September PCE data, market sentiment lacks directional confidence and will remain cautious. If the Fed adopts a dovish stance but PCE comes in higher than expected, markets may sell off tech stocks due to inflationary pressures, negatively impacting Bitcoin. Wintermute emphasized that the current outlook is not explicitly bearish, but a cautious stance will persist until Bitcoin reclaims $82,500.
Bitcoin Drops Below $82,500 Support for the Third Straight Week
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Summary
According to Wintermute, Bitcoin fell below the $82,500 support level for the third consecutive week. The price is now testing the $80,000 support level. Rising energy costs and inflation concerns are currently the primary macro risks. Bitcoin’s price movement remains closely linked to the Nasdaq and AI stocks, with ETF flows continuing to fluctuate. The Fed’s rate decision and policy remarks will be key catalysts. If Bitcoin fails to hold above $80,000, the next support and resistance level is at $76,000; a break below that could push prices toward $70,000. To reverse the downtrend, Bitcoin must reclaim the $82,000 to $82,500 range. A hawkish Fed could drive prices lower, while a dovish stance may enable a rebound. Market confidence remains fragile ahead of the Fed’s decision and Q3 GDP data.
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