The US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, roughly triple what economists had penciled in. Wall Street expected something in the range of 53,000 to 56,000. What it got instead was the strongest monthly gain since March, and a clear signal that the labor market isn’t slowing down the way the Federal Reserve might have hoped.
Bitcoin responded the way risk assets tend to respond when rate hikes suddenly look more likely: it fell. The largest cryptocurrency dropped nearly 2-3% to trade as low as $79,197, slipping below the psychologically important $80K level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed roughly 226 points.
The numbers behind the selloff
July’s initial reading of a 23,000-job loss was revised upward to a 21,000-job gain. Combined upward revisions across previous months added another 55,000 jobs to the running total.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Labor force participation ticked up to 61.6%, meaning more Americans are actively looking for and finding work.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year.
The CME FedWatch tool showed the odds of a 25 basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting jumping to approximately 58-60%. Before the jobs data landed, those odds were considerably lower.
What comes next
The jobs report is one input in the Fed’s decision-making process, not the only one. Upcoming Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index readings will be critical in determining whether the central bank actually pulls the trigger on a September hike. A hot inflation print on top of strong employment data would make the case nearly airtight. A cool one could give the Fed cover to hold steady despite the labor market strength.