After the U.S. August employment data significantly exceeded expectations, the market quickly tightened expectations for monetary easing. Bitcoin, which had reached a four-month high earlier on Friday, reversed course and fell back below $80,000, while gold and U.S. stocks also felt the same impact.
August employment data exceeded expectations
According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in August, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 53,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, in line with expectations, and employment data for June and July were also revised upward.
After the data release, the interest rate market quickly adjusted its expectations. According to CME FedWatch, traders' bets on a Fed rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting rose to 58%, up from 49.4% the previous day. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield climbing to its highest level since January 2025.
Bitcoin gives up its intraday gains
Before the non-farm payrolls data release, Bitcoin rose to $82,240, reaching a four-month high. The previous day, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated a preference for maintaining interest rates unchanged, boosting short-term performance of risk assets.
However, strong employment data weakened this expectation. Within minutes of the data release, Bitcoin fell more than 2%, briefly dropping to around $79,300. Higher interest rates typically increase the appeal of risk-free assets and strengthen the U.S. dollar, which often pressures dollar-denominated risk assets and gold.
ETFs continue to record net inflows.
Despite the price pullback, overall sentiment in the crypto market remains optimistic. The CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed Index stands at 75, still in the "greedy" range, but has cooled from the previous week's "extreme greed" level.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $730.8 million today, continuing the buying momentum driven by paused interest rate hike expectations. The Altcoin Season Index stands at 38, indicating that market sentiment still favors Bitcoin over broader altcoins.
On Friday, major U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance: the Dow Jones fell 0.4%, the S&P 500 declined 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Gold briefly dropped to $4,380 per ounce during trading. Markets will now turn their attention to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on September 15–16 and the next U.S. jobs report, due on October 2.