Foreign media reported that Bitcoin experienced a consecutive decline this week, falling from nearly $74,000 to $61,556 intraday on Thursday over four days, dragging down the entire crypto market. During the same period, total market liquidations reached $4.47 billion, with long positions accounting for $3.82 billion, indicating that this downturn disproportionately impacted highly leveraged bullish capital.
Derivatives data is bearish
In addition to continued ETF outflows and escalating geopolitical tensions, the derivatives market is also sending weak signals. Data from CoinGlass shows that the Coinbase premium has largely remained negative since late April and widened further after May 26. This typically indicates weaker buying demand in the U.S. market and no significant rebound in institutional demand.
Deribit data shows that Bitcoin’s 30-day 25-delta skew has declined from -4.2 to -9.4. The decline in this metric reflects that options traders are increasingly willing to pay a premium for downside protection, indicating rising demand for put options.
Velo data also shows that Bitcoin open interest has declined from 282,000 BTC to 265,000 BTC since June, with the cumulative trading volume differential between spot and perpetual contracts also weakening. Foreign media interpret this as indicating reduced buying pressure alongside an increase in new short positions.
$60,000 serves as a short-term turning point.
Illia Otychenko, Chief Analyst at CEX.IO, stated that the primary trigger for this sell-off remains rising geopolitical risks. Following renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, market risk-off sentiment has strengthened, with some speculative capital continuing to flow into AI stocks rather than crypto assets.
He also noted that before the downward momentum accelerated, the cost basis of Bitcoin's short-term holders had fallen below the real average price. According to him, this crossover typically occurs in the middle of past bear markets, indicating that recent buyers are now, on the whole, in a loss position, making the market more susceptible to passive selling.
Otychenko believes that, if historical patterns persist, Bitcoin could still fall below $60,000. If this level is breached, the next key reference point is near $54,000, close to the realized price. He added that the supply held by long-term holders reached a new high this week—a phenomenon commonly observed during bear markets—suggesting that the market bottom may gradually form over the next three to six months.
Market divergence continues to widen
Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly, also told foreign media that Bitcoin is currently in a weak phase of this cycle. If the price continues to hover above $60,000 before declining again, a drop into the $50,000 range would not be surprising. He believes this level could become a potential area for the market to find a new bottom.
However, the report also noted that not all institutions have turned pessimistic. Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick maintains a relatively contrarian view, suggesting that a significant increase in buying pressure after the selling pressure subsides could indicate that a阶段性 low has been reached. One of his key observations is that ETF holdings have remained relatively stable, declining only slightly from 682,000 BTC to 674,000 BTC since February—a drop smaller than previously feared.
On the prediction market Myriad, users are currently more inclined to bet that Bitcoin will first drop to $55,000 rather than rise to $84,000, indicating that short-term sentiment remains cautious.