Bitcoin ended the week on November 8 at $74,968, putting the weekly close 0.7% below the 50-week moving average. The decline interrupted seven consecutive weeks of closes above the average, whose recovery Galaxy's Alex Thorn had linked to historical bear market bottoms. The 50-week moving average represents the arithmetic mean of the latest 50 weekly closing prices.
Galaxy dates Bitcoin's recovery above the average to September 20, 12 weeks after the June low. Bitcoin closed at $81,195 when the recovery began. The November 8 close was 7.7% below that recovery close but remained 26% above the June 28 cycle low of $59,517. BeInCrypto Markets put Bitcoin at $75,031 at publication, a 24-hour decline of 0.86%. That price was approximately 0.6% below the average. The weekly close coincided with forced liquidations across cryptocurrency markets over the weekend, with long positions suffering the largest impact.
Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, identified five recoveries above the average following bear market bottoms since 2012, including September's recovery. Among the four earlier recoveries, the 2015 and 2023 recoveries remained above the average until Bitcoin recovered the previous high. The other two recoveries subsequently failed, but neither failure invalidated the preceding bear market low.
In the 2011-12 cycle, Bitcoin recovered the average in January 2012 with a closing price 18% above the average. Bitcoin crossed below the average three weeks later and remained below for 20 weeks. The subsequent minimum close, $4.39, remained 99% above the 2011 bear market low. Bitcoin recovered the previous high in February 2013.
In the 2019-20 cycle, Bitcoin's May 2019 recovery began with a close 5.7% above the average and lasted 29 weeks. Bitcoin subsequently crossed below the average five times, with the deepest decline occurring during the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. The minimum close of $5,359 remained 68% above the 2018 bear market low. Bitcoin recovered the previous high in December 2020. Both historical cycles recovered the previous high within two years after first recovering the moving average.
Bitcoin's September recovery close was approximately 36% above the June low. The corresponding margin above the bear market low was approximately 79% in 2019. The corresponding margin was approximately 223% in 2012. The November 8 close was already 7.7% below September's recovery close, exceeding the comparable 6.5% decline at the 2020 low. The 2012 retest produced a 38.1% decline from the recovery close. An equivalent decline from $81,195 would put Bitcoin near $50,260, below the June low.
However, Thorn warned that the initial margin above the moving average has not consistently predicted the outcome. The 2012 recovery failed despite beginning 18% above the average, whereas the 2015 recovery held after beginning 8% above the average. Galaxy's chart also identifies two closes above the average, in December 2021 and March 2022, that preceded the cycle's eventual low. A lower low followed those closes. Thorn's finding therefore applies only to recoveries occurring after a bear market bottom. Thorn emphasized that the entire sample comprises five recoveries and that confirmation of a bottom requires hindsight.
The next weekly close will provide the first test against the 50-week moving average, currently around $75,488. The 200-week moving average sits lower, at $67,746. Thorn said the $59,517 June low must remain intact for the 2026 bottom assessment to remain valid. Across the four completed bear markets in Galaxy's chart, every close following a post-bottom recovery remained above the preceding bear market low.
Bitcoin Falls Below 50-Week Moving Average After 7-Week Recovery
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Summary
Bitcoin news: On November 8, Bitcoin closed at $74,968, dropping below the 50-week moving averages for the first time in seven weeks. The decline followed a 12-week rebound from the June low, with Bitcoin still 26% above that level. Weekend liquidations hit long positions across crypto markets. Galaxy’s Alex Thorn noted past recoveries above the average didn’t negate bear market lows. The next weekly close will test Bitcoin’s position against the $75,488 average.
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