Bitcoin is holding around $77,300 this weekend, but a large concentration of selling between current prices and $80,000 is making the next breakout increasingly difficult.
CryptoQuant data cited by FXStreet shows long-term holders have sold roughly 539,000 BTC in 2026 between $77,100 and $80,200, creating a substantial overhead supply zone. Above that range, Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average near $81,700 has emerged as the next major technical test.
BTC is currently almost unchanged over 24 hours and down roughly 2.9% over seven days. Futures open interest remains elevated at about $51.9 billion, while approximately $183 million of Bitcoin positions were liquidated over the latest 24-hour period.
$81,700 Could Decide Bitcoin’s Next Trend
Bitcoin has repeatedly struggled around $80,000 despite rallying from roughly $63,000 during August.
CryptoQuant identifies $81,700 as particularly important because Bitcoin has historically shown stronger bull-market behavior after reclaiming its 365-day moving average. A second valuation barrier sits near $83,600, meaning bulls may need to clear both levels before a larger recovery becomes convincing.
That creates a clearer setup than the recent speculative calls for $90,000.
A break above $81,700–$83,600 could reopen the path toward the mid-$80,000s. Failure to escape the current supply zone would leave Bitcoin vulnerable to another test of lower support.
The 200-day moving average near $70,000 is the major longer-term level CryptoQuant is watching if the correction deepens.
That extends the pressure already visible in Bitcoin’s recent $76K–$77K decision zone, which has repeatedly attracted buyers during September.
$449M ETF Outflow Adds Pressure
Institutional flows have also weakened.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $46.6 million on Sept. 8, $120.2 million on Sept. 9 and $282.7 million on Sept. 10, producing roughly $449.5 million of net outflows across three sessions, according to Farside Investors
That is a notable reversal from the $905 million two-day inflow seen only days earlier.
The next macro catalyst arrives quickly.
Markets now assign roughly an 85%–87% probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike next week after August CPI rose 3.4% year over year. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly approached 5%, increasing competition for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin therefore enters the Fed week trapped between two increasingly clear boundaries.
Holding $76,000–$77,000 keeps another breakout attempt alive. But bulls still need to absorb the 539,000 BTC supply between $77,100 and $80,200 and reclaim $81,700 before a stronger bullish trend can be confirmed. Below that, the risk of a deeper move toward $70,000 remains open.