Bitcoin rose to $63,697 early on August 3 before retreating to around $62,747. This week, the market will be digesting five key U.S. economic data releases alongside earnings reports from multiple companies. Investors are closely watching whether this information will alter their expectations for the Fed’s future interest rate path.
The de-escalation of the situation in Iran has not significantly boosted Bitcoin. U.S. President Trump canceled the planned strike against Iran and stated that negotiations regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would begin on Monday. Following the news, international oil prices quickly declined, with Brent crude falling over 5% and West Texas Intermediate dipping below $80 per barrel. In contrast, Bitcoin briefly rose to $63,700 but failed to hold above that level.
Geopolitical news has had limited impact.
This shows that Bitcoin's response to geopolitical easing remains weaker than that of energy markets, as any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz directly impacts global crude oil transportation and supply; Bitcoin remains more sensitive to variables such as liquidity, interest rates, and institutional demand for funds.
Currently, Trump has claimed that an agreement on the Strait issue already exists, but public information has not yet confirmed that a final arrangement has been reached, and Iran has also disputed these claims. Therefore, this appears more like a diplomatic signal of de-escalation rather than a complete removal of risk.
Five sets of data are hitting simultaneously
This week, the most closely watched items are a series of U.S. economic data releases:
- Monday: July ISM Manufacturing PMI released
- Tuesday: June job openings data released
- Wednesday: July ADP Private Employment and ISM Services PMI released
- The July non-farm payroll report will be released on Friday.
This data will directly impact market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% on July 29, stating that the U.S. economy continues to expand steadily, though uncertainties from the Middle East conflict remain.
In June, U.S. non-farm payroll growth totaled just 57,000 jobs, and data for the previous two months were collectively revised down by 74,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, partly due to a contraction in the labor force. If this week’s employment and services data come in stronger than expected, markets may continue betting on prolonged high interest rates; if the data broadly show signs of slowing, it could ease pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and improve performance of risk assets.
A single positive factor may not be enough to break the deadlock.
The article notes that Bitcoin's recent price movement suggests that a single positive catalyst may not be enough to end the current consolidation. A more sustained upward move typically requires multiple data points pointing in the same direction.
For example, if job openings decline, private employment slows, and non-farm payrolls continue to weaken, the market may further reinforce its view that labor demand is cooling. However, if service sector activity remains strong or input prices rise during the same period, this dovish expectation could be partially offset.
Corporate earnings reports add sources of volatility.
In addition to macroeconomic data, corporate earnings this week are another source of market volatility. AMD and SpaceX are scheduled to release their quarterly results after the U.S. market closes on Tuesday, while Sandisk will report earnings on Wednesday. Strong earnings from technology companies typically help boost overall risk appetite.
However, the impact of such earnings reports on Bitcoin is typically still weaker than interest rate expectations, ETF fund flows, and changes in dollar liquidity. For the crypto market, what truly determines direction is whether sustained buying pressure emerges after the data release, rather than short-term reactions to any single data point.