Odaily Planet Daily report: The U.S. labor market showed clear signs of cooling. Data revealed that U.S. non-farm payroll employment decreased by 23,000 in July, far below the market expectation of an increase of 85,000, falling short by 108,000—the third-largest monthly job decline since the pandemic in 2020. Meanwhile, June’s non-farm payroll data was revised downward by 37,000, further indicating a weakening trend in the labor market.
After the release of the employment data, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September rapidly declined. The probability of a September hike fell sharply from around 70% to 40%, prompting investors to reprice the future path of Fed policy. Analysts noted that lower odds of a rate hike typically benefit risk assets, but the underlying cause—weakening economic growth and a softer labor market—could also heighten market risk-off sentiment. Meanwhile, gold prices broke above $4,400, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets.
For Bitcoin, the current market faces dual influences: on one hand, a shift toward accommodative Federal Reserve policy may boost risk appetite and benefit crypto assets; on the other hand, a continuing deterioration in the labor market could constrain upward price movement. The market will closely monitor next month’s non-farm payrolls data to determine whether it further confirms the trend of labor slowdown. If labor weakness persists, it could strengthen expectations of a Fed pivot toward easing, but may also intensify concerns about an economic recession.