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Bitcoin faces resistance at $68,000 but remains above the 200-week moving average.
The crypto market continues its rebound, with Bitcoin's price holding near $66,000 and briefly surging above $66,900, marking a rally of over 15% from its July low. CoinDesk notes that Bitcoin is currently more aligned with chip stocks and macro risk appetite than trading solely on the "digital gold" narrative.
Current resistance zones above Bitcoin are concentrated at $67,000, $67,300, $67,900, and $68,000. Bitfinex analysts believe that around $68,000, the price not only approaches the average cost of investors over the past five months but also corresponds to the failed rebound point in mid-June; a large amount of trapped capital may sell once it breaks even, so the first test could trigger significant volatility.
On the technical side, traders are monitoring the BTC weekly 200MA at approximately $63,333 and the weekly 200EMA at around $68,328. Daan Crypto Trades notes that Bitcoin is currently trapped between the weekly 200MA, weekly 200EMA, and the bullish support zone, with the current price situated midway between these key moving averages. A decisive breakout will require a weekly close below $55,000 or above $70,000. A breakout above $68,000 could open further upside potential, while a failure may lead to a retest of support near $63,000.
However, the market remains in a cautious recovery phase. Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, noted that open interest in CME Bitcoin futures has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, and spot trading volumes are also noticeably weak, suggesting the current rally resembles a “summer low-liquidity rebound” rather than the start of a full-fledged bull market.
Today's highlights:
MBG will unlock approximately 27.15 million tokens on July 22, valued at around $3.3 million.
SOON (SOON) will unlock approximately 20.24 million tokens on July 23, valued at around $3.3 million.
Token unlock · 08:00
aPriori (APR) will unlock approximately 31.88 million tokens on July 23, valued at around $6.8 million.
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: BTC, XRP, ETH, ERA, ONDO
Bitcoin Spot ETF: +$203 million, marking six consecutive days of net inflows
Ethereum Spot ETF: +$37.471 million, third consecutive day of net inflows
Today's top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap with the highest gains: NIGHT up 16%, BEAT up 14.4%, HASH up 12.1%, RAIN up 6.3%, GRAM up 4.3%.
The three major U.S. stock futures declined, and stocks that surged last night all fell during after-hours trading.
All three major U.S. stock index futures declined: the Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.79%, the Dow futures dropped 0.29%, and the S&P 500 futures decreased 0.33%.
BIT After-Hours Data shows that during U.S. after-hours trading, the semiconductor and memory sectors, which surged last night, have begun to decline: the semiconductor ETF fell 2.22%, the 3x leveraged long semiconductor ETF dropped 6.28%, and Intel declined 2.7%. Memory stocks that rose over 10% last night, including Micron, fell 2.29%; SanDisk dropped 1.92%; SK Hynix declined 4.95%; and the DRAM memory ETF fell 3.18%.
The most notable stock after hours and in the night session on Tuesday in U.S. markets was Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which rose over 20% after hours and another 15.8% during the night session. The company forecasted fourth-quarter revenue near the lower end of its $11 billion to $12.5 billion guidance range, but significantly raised its gross margin outlook to 15%–17%, far above the previous expectation of 8.2%–8.4%. More critically, the company reported that new orders for the quarter exceeded $60 billion, with backlog reaching an all-time high, strongly reinforcing the view that demand for AI servers remains robust.
Rocket Lab rose over 7% after hours and 4% in after-hours trading, as the company secured a $266 million contract from the U.S. Air Force to conduct suborbital rocket launches.
Oklo rose over 6.6% after hours, X-Energy rose over 8.6% after hours, and both also gained more than 3% during the night session. Both companies have officially joined the new nuclear reactor construction initiative promoted by the Trump administration, with the market continuing to treat “power after AI computing” as the next layer of infrastructure investment.
SpaceX ended seven consecutive days of declines last night, rising 3.08%, and continued to gain 0.23% in after-hours trading. The market is awaiting its first earnings report since listing on August 4; meanwhile, tensions between short and long positions are intensifying ahead of a large lock-up expiration on August 6. S3 Partners estimates that approximately 206 million shares of SpaceX are currently shorted, accounting for about 32% of the float, with a notional short position of around $25 billion.
U.S. stocks surged sharply last night, but oil and U.S. Treasuries are cooling off the rally.
The three major U.S. stock indices rose collectively on Tuesday, ending a three-day losing streak. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.21%, posting its best single-day gain in six weeks. The storage sector skyrocketed, with Micron rising 12.17%, SanDisk up 14.27%, Western Digital up 12.51%, Seagate up 11.14%, and SK Hynix’s U.S.-listed shares up 13.75%. Markets are once again believing that the proliferation of AI models will drive increased demand for storage, computing power, and servers.
Bank of America believes that open-source models like Kimi K3 will not reduce hardware demand; instead, they will increase demand for HBM, DRAM, and NAND due to local deployment and private training. UBS also states that tech giants view AI as a "winner-takes-all" competition and will continue purchasing hardware even if short-term returns are low.
NVIDIA rose 1.97% as the company disclosed that the Vera Rubin platform has entered mass production ramp-up, with Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud, and CoreWeave already beginning deployment. AMD rose 8.11% as the market preemptively positioned for its AI events. Intel rose 8.64% due to a rebound in the semiconductor sector and securing an order from Flexion.
Former special analyst Jun for BIT's U.S. stock business noted that the key focus for recent U.S. stocks lies in two areas: whether earnings reports can validate profitability, and whether positions in AI infrastructure and semiconductors remain stable. Earlier, AI infrastructure stocks faced pressure due to factors such as Meta’s compute rental plan and SK Hynix’s sharp decline, but this rebound indicates that the market is reassessing demand for AI hardware.
However, U.S. equities are not having an easy time. Brent crude has risen above $91, as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, with the U.S. striking Iranian targets for the 11th consecutive night. Red Sea shipping is also under threat from Houthi militants, and rising oil prices have reignited inflation concerns.
U.S. Treasuries are also dampening stock market sentiment, with the 10-year yield rising to approximately 4.64%, breaking past the key 4.60% level; the 30-year TIPS yield climbed to 2.95%, hitting a high not seen since 2008. RBC interest rate strategist Izaac Brook said rising energy prices are the primary driver behind higher rates. Natixis Chief U.S. Economist Christopher Hodge argued that the Fed should pay more attention to the energy price shock that has already occurred.
According to BIT US Stocks, cryptocurrency-related stocks performed strongly, with Coinbase up approximately 9.6%, Robinhood up 7.11%, and Strategy up 4.22%. The main driver is the progress of the U.S. CLARITY Act, as the market perceives cryptocurrency regulation becoming clearer. Circle will release its earnings on August 5, and investors will closely monitor the scale of USDC and reserve yields. Mining companies also rose, with American Bitcoin up 12.13%, Cipher Digital up 11.44%, Hut 8 up 7.98%, and Bitdeer up 9.76%, supported by Bitcoin’s rebound and the AI computing transition narrative.
South Korea's semiconductor sector recovers, while Japan's yen risk rises
The Asian market overall followed the rebound in U.S. tech stocks, but the movement remained unstable. The rebound in AI hardware strengthened technology sectors in South Korea and Japan; however, the yen falling below 163, rising oil prices, and higher U.S. Treasury yields have kept the market on alert.
The South Korean KOSPI index rose more than 6% in early trading before closing up 0.74%. The rally was primarily driven by the near-completion of leveraged position liquidations, as the market shifted from panic selling to recovery. J.P. Morgan strategist Mixo Das noted that approximately 75% of the deleveraging of South Korean leveraged ETFs may already be complete.
South Korean semiconductor stocks rose sharply before pulling back: SK Hynix surged over 9% in early trading but closed down 0.32%; Samsung Electronics rose 0.57%. Rumors that SK Hynix is negotiating to acquire Intel’s Ohio campus to produce memory chips in the U.S. fueled volatility, though follow-up details remain unclear. The South Korean government has also held discussions with export-oriented companies including Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, and Kia regarding exchange rate stability, with expectations that stronger semiconductor exports in the second half of the year will improve foreign exchange supply and demand.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 closed down 0.18%. Japan’s exports in June increased by 19.3% year-over-year, while imports rose 25.4%, resulting in a trade deficit of ¥406.9 billion. A weaker yen benefits export companies’ income conversion but raises energy and import costs.
The greatest risk remains exchange rates, with the yen hitting its lowest level since 1986. Former Bank of Japan policy board member Sayuri Shirai warned that if the Federal Reserve continues raising rates, the USD/JPY could rise toward 165. Markets are beginning to worry about potential Japanese government intervention in the currency market; such intervention could trigger unwinding of global carry trades, impacting tech stocks and risk assets.
Next, pay attention to:
July 22 (Wednesday) (Tech Super Day)
21:00 Samsung's global product launch event takes place, with market attention focused on whether the new devices will feature more on-device AI capabilities.
AMD AI event on July 22–23: The market will watch to see if AMD can present a clearer AI server roadmap and customer orders, determining whether the AI hardware rebound can spread.
Google, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, and ServiceNow will release earnings after market close: For Alphabet, focus on Google Cloud, advertising, and AI capital expenditures. Strong cloud growth would support the AI hardware chain; if spending is high but returns are weak, tech stocks may face pressure. For Tesla, focus on automotive gross margin, energy storage, FSD, and Robotaxi.
July 23 (Thursday)
20:15 ECB interest rate decision and Lagarde press conference: Markets expect no change, but statements on inflation and liquidity withdrawal will trigger volatility in the euro and global bond markets.
20:30 U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims: Market expectations are around 214,000. If initial claims are significantly lower than expected, it indicates a still-tight labor market, making it harder for the Fed to pivot toward easing; if initial claims rise, it will reinforce trades betting on slowing growth, benefiting U.S. Treasuries while pressuring banks and cyclical stocks.
Intel released its earnings after hours, marking the most critical transition test since the semiconductor bear market. On the same day, Nokia, Lockheed Martin, RTX, Blackstone, American Airlines, Newmont Mining, Honeywell, SAP, Digital Realty, and T-Mobile also released their earnings.