Approximately 81,700 Bitcoin options on the Deribit platform will expire on August 28 at 08:00 UTC, with a notional value of about $6.44 billion at current prices. Bitcoin rose rapidly from around $62,000 to near $80,000 over the previous week, making this expiration one of the most watched events in this week’s crypto market.
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $78,970, down about 1.4% over the past 24 hours, but up 22.9% over the past 7 days. The intraday trading range has been between $77,955 and $80,194.
More call contracts than put contracts
Of the expiring contracts, there were approximately 44,639 call options and 37,061 put options, resulting in a put-call ratio of 0.83, indicating a higher number of call contracts. However, this data alone does not necessarily indicate a consensus market bet on further upside, as some call positions may also be used in neutral strategies, covered positions, or volatility trades.
Looking at the distribution of strike prices, $75,000 is the strike price with the highest concentration of open positions, corresponding to a notional value of approximately $2.36 billion; the $80,000 strike price follows closely with about $1.57 billion. As Bitcoin previously rose rapidly, some call options below the current price have entered the in-the-money zone.
$75,000 and $80,000 are key attention levels.
The market is more focused on hedging activities around these concentrated strike prices. Market makers typically adjust their risk exposure by buying or selling Bitcoin spot, futures, or other related instruments. When the price approaches these areas of high open interest, such adjustments may occur more frequently.
Deribit Chief Risk Officer Shaun Fernando said that currently, over $500 million in notional value of options positions are located within a 5% range above and below the current Bitcoin price. This means that hedging demand could significantly increase before expiration.
In this scenario, prices are sometimes "pinned" near key strike levels, such as $80,000; however, if the price rapidly breaks through a dense region, hedging trades could also amplify volatility in the opposite direction. The article notes that these are merely potential outcomes, not guaranteed results, as external parties cannot fully determine market makers' net position direction based solely on publicly available open interest data.
The volatility structure has changed.
Fernando also noted that nearly 20% of the open interest in Deribit’s Bitcoin options is set to expire en masse this time. Meanwhile, Deribit’s Bitcoin Volatility Index (DVOL) has risen approximately 30% over the past week.
The options term structure has shifted from backwardation to contango, indicating that implied volatilities for longer-dated contracts have risen above those of shorter-dated contracts. Meanwhile, the volatility skew for call and put options has turned from negative to positive, reflecting increased market demand for upside exposure.
This shift occurred following Bitcoin's rapid rebound. According to reports, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.1 billion in net inflows on August 19 and 20, propelling BTC out of its previous range and above $76,000.
The "biggest pain point" does not equal the settlement goal.
The strike price corresponding to this expiration is approximately $68,000. The term "maximum pain" refers to the settlement price that causes the greatest number of options to expire worthless, thereby minimizing the overall profit for option holders.
However, this indicator is not suitable as a short-term price target, as it does not fully account for hedging trades, position costs, over-the-counter or other exchange holdings, spot buying pressure, or changes in macroeconomic factors.
The current price of Bitcoin remains approximately $11,000 above $68,000. In comparison, the market is more likely to first observe whether the price continues to hold near $80,000 or retreats toward the $75,000 level. As near-term positions are settled or rolled over, hedging demand may decline after settlement, helping to reduce volatility.