As per Blockchainreporter, Bitcoin ($BTC) has experienced a 20% drawdown over the past three months, with its price dropping $21,500 and posting a -10.5% year-over-year performance. Institutional Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlighted that the first quarter of 2026 could determine whether the current correction turns into a bear market. Adler noted that while a double-digit drawdown is not uncommon, the RSI's positioning relative to long-term averages is key to distinguishing a healthy correction from a prolonged downturn. The monthly RSI is currently at 56.5, near the 4-year SMA of 58.7, a level that historically preceded bearish phases. Adler emphasized that an RSI above 55–58 in Q1 2026 could support recovery, while a sustained drop below 55 may signal further declines.
Bitcoin Faces 20% Drawdown in 2025 as Analysts Warn of Bear Market Risk in 2026
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Summary
Bitcoin news reports a 20% drawdown in 2025, with Bitcoin analysis showing a $21,500 price drop and -10.5% annual return. Axel Adler Jr. warns Q1 2026 could signal a bear market. The monthly RSI at 56.5 is near its 4-year SMA of 58.7, a level often seen before bearish phases. Adler says RSI above 55–58 in early 2026 may support a recovery, while a drop below 55 could mean more declines.
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