Bitcoin Exchange Outflows Hit Five-Week High Ahead of Fed Decision

• Santiment reports 14,942 BTC in net exchange outflows, with $80,000 support and a potential recovery toward 82,500–84,000 in focus.
• Glassnode says Bitcoin recently outperformed the S&P 500, while its backtested RSI strategy recorded a 20% maximum drawdown since July 2023.
• Darkfost’s Bitcoin Unified Sentiment index fell to -11, signaling worsening sentiment ahead of the Fed decision and GDP and PCE releases.

Bitcoin recorded 14,942 BTC in net exchange outflows, its largest daily total in five weeks, according to Santiment Intelligence. The movement came ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision and Thursday’s GDP and PCE data releases. Meanwhile, Glassnode reported Bitcoin outperforming the S&P 500, while analyst Darkfost tracked a decline in market sentiment.

According to Santiment Intelligence, Bitcoin holders moved 14,942 BTC away from exchanges before several major economic releases. The data tracks wallet activity and measures the net movement of Bitcoin from exchanges.

Notably, Santiment identified $80,000 as the first price level to defend if macroeconomic developments trigger selling pressure. If Bitcoin holds that level while exchange supply continues falling, the price could rebound toward $82,500 to $84,000.

However, a decisive drop below roughly $79,000 would weaken this setup. Santiment also identified a reclaim of $82,500 after the economic releases as stronger confirmation of a recovery.

Meanwhile, Glassnode reported that Bitcoin had outperformed the S&P 500 across recent weeks, recording more winning trading days than losing ones. In June, Bitcoin recorded a winning day only once in five sessions, its weakest stretch in more than five years.

Glassnode also shared a backtested Bitcoin trading rule based on the 30-day relative strength index of entities in profit. The strategy buys when the indicator crosses above a specified threshold.

Since July 2023, the strategy recorded a maximum drawdown of 20%, compared with 53% for simply holding Bitcoin. Glassnode did not provide the threshold value in the supplied information.

However, analyst Darkfost reported that Bitcoin Unified Sentiment had returned to negative territory. The index stood at -11 and continued declining, indicating weaker sentiment compared with previous readings.

Darkfost described the reading as relatively neutral while noting a clear deterioration in market sentiment. The index ranges from +100 to -100 and combines the Fear and Greed Index with CoinGecko’s sentiment check.

Both inputs undergo normalization over a rolling one-year window. The latest reading places Bitcoin sentiment in negative territory as traders approach the Federal Reserve decision and Thursday’s economic data releases.