Bitcoin ETFs Continue Net Outflows, Strategy's Weekly Buy Lowest of the Year

• On October 13 during Asian trading hours, Bitcoin fell below $81,000 before recovering above $83,000. During the same period, South Korea’s KOSPI closed down 5.46%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunging approximately 7% to 10% intraday. The crypto market saw around $800 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for roughly 86%.
• The rebound was primarily driven by leveraged liquidations and short covering. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $681 million in the previous week, while Strategy bought only 250 Bitcoin during the same period; institutional spot demand has yet to confirm a return.
• Saylor stated that Bitcoin has bottomed just below $60,000 and will return above $100,000, while MSCI’s screening results for “non-operating companies” will be announced no later than October 16 and could remove Strategy from the global index.
• Underlying Assets: BTC, MSTR, IBIT/FBTC

During the Asian trading session on October 13, Bitcoin briefly fell below $81,000, then recovered above $83,000 within a few hours. During the same period, South Korea’s KOSPI index closed down 5.46%, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plunging approximately 7% and 9% to 10% intraday. The crypto market quickly characterized this divergence between Bitcoin’s price and Asian tech stocks as a “decoupling.”

But when extending the timeline to a week, the picture is inconsistent. From October 5 to 9, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of approximately $681 million, the largest weekly outflow since June, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading the decline at around $380 million. While the price held firm between $83,000 and $84,000, capital departed during the same period.

Spot ETF outflows mean that holders are redeeming their shares for cash, forcing the fund to sell its held Bitcoin to meet redemption requests—it serves as a gauge for whether price and fund flows are aligned. Perpetual contract liquidations occur when leveraged positions are forcibly closed due to insufficient margin, amplifying price volatility without generating new spot buying demand.

On the early morning of October 13, Bitcoin first dropped below $81,000, while the KOSPI plummeted amid a valuation correction in chip stocks. Contract data shows that approximately $800 million was liquidated over the preceding and following 24 hours, with long positions accounting for about 86%. Open interest (total contract holdings) also declined simultaneously, consistent with deleveraging rather than new capital inflow.

Liquidation is primarily driven by long positions being forcibly closed.

The liquidation structure itself reveals the source of the rebound. The majority of liquidated positions were long bets; after price hit bottom, short sellers covered their positions, driving the rally—this explains why Korean stocks continued to fall while Bitcoin recovered to $83,000. Within the same window, large liquidations also occurred in tokenized perpetual contracts linked to chip stocks.

In other words, there was indeed short-term buying pressure around $81,000, but it came from passive liquidations of leveraged positions, not from new institutional buying in the spot market. A single rebound during Asian morning trading is insufficient to support the conclusion of a "permanent decoupling."

Evidence from fund flows is more honest than price. After a net outflow of $681 million last week, another $65.4 million flowed out on October 12, with only a mixed daily figure of approximately $110 million on October 13. Weekly outflows cannot be directly causally linked to daily price movements, but they align in direction, indicating that institutional channels continue to bleed.

The weekly outflows from spot ETFs have yet to reverse.

The behavior of the strategy is also worth examining closely. According to the company’s October 12 announcement, between October 5 and 11, it purchased only 250 bitcoins at an average price of $86,194, totaling approximately $21.5 million. During the same period, approximately $192.4 million was allocated to repurchase preferred shares STRC—nearly nine times the amount spent on buying bitcoins.

250 units is one of the smallest weekly buy volumes for Strategy this year, as previous weekly purchases were significantly higher than this level.

Weekly crypto purchases have significantly contracted for two consecutive weeks.

It functions more as a narrative signal of "always buying" rather than concrete evidence of capital shifting at a cycle turning point. Interpreting it as "heavy bottom-fishing" overstates the fundamental support for this rally.

On October 13, Saylor told Bloomberg during DC Fintech Week that the Bitcoin bear market had ended just below $60,000, and that the price would return above $100,000, with an annualized growth forecast of 20% to 30% over the coming years. As the leader of the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, he is the market’s most steadfast bull.

One side of the standoff is MSCI. This index provider launched a consultation on “non-operating companies” in August, with feedback due by September 30; the results are expected to be announced no later than October 16. According to its simulation criteria, companies primarily holding financial assets are more akin to investment vehicles than operating companies, and firms such as Strategy and Metaplanet may be removed from global investable indices.

The weight of this rule lies in passive capital. Once excluded, funds tracking MSCI are contractually obligated to sell and may no longer add to their positions. J.P. Morgan estimated in 2025 that Strategy could face approximately $2.8 billion in potential passive selling pressure. Saylor refers to the $80,000 range as the start of a new bull market, while MSCI’s survey frames the same level as an identity crisis for the index.

Bitcoin remains trapped within the $81,000 to $84,000 range, well below last year’s all-time high. The rebound occurred below the market’s estimated institutional cost basis, following a redemption week—a level that naturally exerts downward pressure.

The September CPI, released on October 14, serves as the first test at the upper boundary of the range. Analysts expect a year-over-year reading of approximately 3.6% to 3.7%, higher than August’s 3.4%. If the core reading comes in cooler, short covering could push prices toward $86,000 to $87,000. If it comes in hotter, $81,000 or even $80,000 may be retested.

Even if the MSCI outcome is finalized on October 16, the passive selling pressure will not be fully implemented until the index rebalancing in November.

The removal of selling pressure will be implemented in November.

What needs to be monitored is whether the premium of MSTR relative to Bitcoin narrows, and whether the daily ETF flows can sustain a positive trend. These two signals will determine whether this rebound is merely a mechanical correction within a range or whether capital has genuinely shifted back to the bulls.