Since mid-May, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced cumulative outflows of nearly $5.75 billion, with the market initially attributing this to investors setting aside funds for popular IPOs such as SpaceX and Anthropic. However, Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer at Swiss digital asset bank Sygnum, believes that on-chain and market data do not support this explanation.
The exchange and stablecoin showed no unusual activity.
Dori told CoinDesk that if institutions continue selling Bitcoin to raise cash for IPO subscriptions, there would typically be more noticeable changes in exchange flows and stablecoin supply. However, at present, exchange liquidity appears largely normal, and stablecoin supply has not shown significant contraction.
He also noted that higher-risk products related to crypto assets continue to attract capital inflows, indicating that there is no widespread withdrawal from digital assets in the market.
The decrease in CME open interest resembles arbitrage position closures.
Dori believes more compelling clues come from the derivatives market. The recent decline in open interest for Bitcoin futures on the CME, occurring in tandem with ETF redemptions, is more indicative of cash-and-futures arbitrage positions being closed out.
These trades typically generate basis profit by buying spot and selling futures. When the futures premium narrows or funding conditions no longer favor the strategy, traders close their spot positions and cover their futures short positions. This process may lead to ETF outflows, but it does not necessarily indicate that investors are becoming bearish on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin once fell below $60,000
Under sustained redemption pressure, Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 in the first week of June, hitting a new low since 2026 and declining more than 50% from its peak of nearly $125,000 in October last year. As SpaceX’s IPO approached, the market initially linked this selling pressure to capital shifting toward equity subscriptions.
However, Dori noted that open interest and funding rates showed strong correlation during the same period, which is more consistent with the exit of arbitrage positions rather than a large-scale withdrawal of funds from the crypto market.