Foreign media report that when Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in nearly two years at the end of June, two opposing forces emerged in the market: one side saw continuous outflows from spot ETFs, while the other saw large whale addresses accumulating heavily at the low point. The article suggests that this divergence has become a key observation point for Bitcoin’s performance in the second half of the year.
On June 27, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $58,188. According to the data cited in the article, spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $4.51 billion in June, the largest monthly outflow since the products' launch; when combining May and June, the total net outflow amounted to about $7 billion. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data showed that whale wallets absorbed over 270,000 BTC within a similar two-week period, equivalent to approximately $16.7 billion at prevailing prices.
ETFs and whales are sending conflicting signals.
The article argues that ETF fund flows represent the most transparent set of data in the Bitcoin market. Daily subscriptions and redemptions are verifiable, and outflows typically correspond to genuine selling pressure. However, such data only reflect capital behavior and may not directly indicate long-term sentiment. Quarter-end rebalancing, stronger inflation data, and market repricing of the U.S. interest rate trajectory could all prompt synchronized reductions in advisory accounts, model portfolios, and arbitrage funds.
In comparison, whale data is more difficult to attribute precisely. Increases in large addresses may reflect custody adjustments, over-the-counter settlements, or genuine purchases. However, the article notes that ambiguity decreases when combined with other on-chain metrics. During the period of accumulation, Bitcoin exchange reserves did not rise; instead, they continued to decline, suggesting that some holdings are leaving easily sellable exchange platforms.
On-chain reserves and movements of old coins attract attention
The article also notes that long-dormant coins have not experienced a large-scale revival. Although one wallet that had been inactive for 13.7 years recently moved its funds, such cases remain rare. More importantly, significant accumulation by whales has primarily occurred during price downturns, rather than after rebounds. This is typically seen as buying pressure from investors insensitive to short-term price fluctuations absorbing sell-side pressure.
When viewed together, the two datasets are summarized as a shift in holdings: Bitcoin may be moving from the most transparent and emotionally driven holders toward longer-term, less active large holders. The debate is not whether this shift is occurring, but whether it signals a stage of accumulation or whether greater selling pressure remains unresolved.
Next, watch for three types of market signals.
The article argues that the bearish logic lies in the fact that spot ETFs have already altered Bitcoin’s market structure. Over the past year, ETFs have been the primary source of new buying demand; once this channel consistently turns into net outflows, selling pressure will trigger a chain reaction through fund redemptions, weakening prices, and further position reductions.
The bullish argument is that, historically, when the market experiences a deep pullback, long-term holders and large addresses often step in to buy at lower levels, typically near key support areas. The article notes that Bitcoin approached its 200-week moving average at the end of June, while whale accumulation accelerated during this period—a convergence that some market participants view as a strong bullish signal.
- Has the spot ETF ended its continuous outflows and resumed stable net inflows?
- Are large whale addresses continuing to accumulate after the rebound, rather than pausing short-term?
- Are futures market positions and exchange reserves improving in sync?
The article also noted that Bitcoin subsequently rebounded above $62,000, with a short squeeze on July 4 triggering approximately $281 million in short liquidations; during the same period, spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $221.7 million for the day—the largest single-day inflow in nearly two months. Foreign media believe these developments have clarified the分歧, but are not yet sufficient to determine a definitive direction.