Key Insights
- Bitcoin price has moved sideways in the past few weeks.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have jumped to $754 million this month.
- The US will publish the latest nonfarm payrolls data.
Bitcoin price remains in a deep slumber today, a sign that neither bulls nor bears are in control for now. This consolidation is happening as American investors continue accumulating spot BTC ETFs.
It will next react to the upcoming NFP data. That comes at a time when the odds of a Fed rate hike are rising.
Bitcoin Price Holds Steady as Spot ETF Inflows Jump
Bitcoin price has moved sideways in the past few weeks, even as signs of accumulation continue. SoSoValue data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have added assets for the last four consecutive days.
These funds added $128 million on Thursday. This brought this week’s gains to $754 million, the best week since April this year.
These inflows are higher than the $172 million experienced last month. They have had cumulative inflows of over $52 billion and hold $78 billion in assets, with BlackRock’s IBIT having $48 billion.
This accumulation likely explains why the support of Bitcoin in exchanges has dropped in the past few months. There are now 2.49 million coins in exchanges, down sharply from last year’s high of 3.4 million. Falling Bitcoin supply in exchanges is a sign that investors are accumulating their coins.
US to Publish NFP Data as Odds of Fed Hikes Fall
The next important catalyst that may drive Bitcoin and other coins is the July nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report. This is an important number that looks at the number of jobs that were created last month.
Data compiled by Investing shows that the estimate is that the economy created 85k jobs in July after adding 57k a month earlier. Traders will focus on whether the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will revise the June jobs report upwards or downwards.
Data released earlier this week by ADP showed that the private sector created 95k jobs last month, higher than the previous 95k. Historically, the official NFP and ADP numbers tend to be different. For one, the BLS’s NFP report includes government jobs, while the ADP one includes the private sector.
These numbers come a few days before the US publishes the latest consumer price index (CPI) report. This report is expected to show that inflation remained at an elevated level in July, even as gasoline prices dropped.
The US NFP and CPI numbers are important because of the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Odds of an interest rate hike happening in the September meeting dropped to 49%. Also, the possibility of a hike happening in October and December dropped to 57% and 63%, respectively.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tend to do well when the Federal Reserve is either cutting interest rates or when the bank is signaling that it will cut rates later this year.
However, Bitcoin has remained a bit muted even after some major events in the US. For example, BTC was fairly unchanged when the Fed delivered its last interest rate decision.
Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC price formed a double-top pattern at $66,933 on June 15 and July 22. This pattern often leads to a strong bearish reversal.
The coin has remained below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that bears remain in control. Also, the price remains below the descending trendline that connects the highest swings since January this year.
Therefore, there is a risk that the coin will resume the downward trend in the foreseeable future. If this happens, Bitcoin will continue falling, potentially to the key support level of $60,000. A move above the resistance level of $65,674 will invalidate the bearish outlook.
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