In accordance with Bijié Wǎng, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs has significantly reduced the average daily volatility of BTC from 4.2% to 1.8%, reflecting a more mature market and growing influence of institutional and retail capital. However, recent data shows a complex relationship between ETF flows and BTC price movements. For example, in November 2025, a record $3.79 billion in ETF outflows coincided with a sharp BTC price drop from over $126,000 to above $80,000. Conversely, in early 2024, a $12.1 billion ETF inflow drove BTC to new highs. As of late 2025, ETF outflows have slowed, but remain a key indicator. A $238.47 million net inflow on November 22 marked the first positive flow in weeks, potentially signaling the end of a major sell-off phase. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows whale wallets (100–1,000 BTC) buying at discounts, while the largest holders (1,000+ BTC) are reducing positions. Technical indicators like RSI and the Sharpe ratio suggest BTC is oversold, and historically, a prolonged decline in the Sharpe ratio has preceded major turning points. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, including a hawkish Fed and rising global bond yields, institutional confidence in BTC as a store of value remains strong.
Bitcoin ETF Flows and BTC Price Outlook: Reversal on the Horizon?
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