Written by André Dragosch, Head of Research, Bitwise Europe
Compiled by: Luffy, Foresight News
One of the longest-standing debates surrounding Bitcoin is whether it truly qualifies as "digital gold." Supporters of this view largely argue from a theoretical standpoint, asserting that Bitcoin shares key characteristics with gold—scarcity, fungibility, divisibility, and the ability to be held without reliance on a third party.
Opponents offer more realistic arguments: Bitcoin’s historical price performance has differed significantly from that of gold. They point to multiple drawdowns of 50% to 80% as evidence challenging this narrative, while also noting that Bitcoin has existed for far less time than gold and lacks the same level of acceptance as a store of value.
However, recent market developments may have resolved this divide. In fact, when macroeconomic risks truly materialize, Bitcoin has proven capable of serving as "digital gold"—and now is the moment when this value is beginning to be realized.
Bitcoin's correlation with gold has risen to a six-year high.
The August market saw major macroeconomic events. The yields on U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds rose, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent intervened in the market by increasing purchases of long-term bonds. This intervention signals that we may be entering a new era of financial repression and yield curve control.
After the intervention took effect, Bitcoin posted its strongest weekly gain since March 2024, rising 22.4%. However, most investors overlooked a key detail: during this rally, Bitcoin's price movement closely mirrored that of gold.
Looking closely, gold posted a weekly gain of approximately 5%, while U.S. stock markets declined. Digging deeper into the data reveals a highly insightful conclusion: the three-month rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has risen to its highest level in nearly six years.
90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold, data source: Bitwise Asset Management, Bloomberg Terminal; time period: April 13, 2015 to August 31, 2026; gold uses spot price.
The last time the correlation between the two reached this level was during the pandemic in 2020, when multiple rounds of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures were implemented globally. In other words, the two periods in history when governments heavily intervened in macro markets coincided precisely with the two instances when the correlation between Bitcoin and gold reached its peak.
Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. equities has fallen to a one-year low, suggesting a decoupling between hard assets and the stock market. The notion that “Bitcoin is just a leveraged tech growth stock” may no longer hold.
The correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market has declined from its highs.
Bitcoin's 90-day rolling correlation against the Nasdaq 100 Index Source: Bitwise Asset Management, Bloomberg Terminal; Period: April 13, 2015 to August 31, 2026; Benchmark: Nasdaq 100 Total Return Index
In addition, Bitcoin exhibits a significant negative correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY). When the dollar comes under pressure and weakens, Bitcoin (as well as gold) often benefits from favorable market conditions.
Bitcoin maintains a negative correlation with the US dollar.
90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index Source: Bitwise Asset Management, Bloomberg Terminal; Period: April 13, 2015 to August 31, 2026; USD represented by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
Bitcoin is a tool for hedging against currency depreciation.
The data sends a clear signal: first, Bitcoin is not equivalent to gold. Gold is a mature store of value refined over thousands of years; Bitcoin, born less than two decades ago, is an entirely new category of innovation. Even when macroeconomic risks are no longer the market’s primary focus, the price movements of Bitcoin and gold continue to diverge significantly.
However, when macroeconomic conditions become tense and macro variables impose strong constraints, the boundary between investors’ choices of gold and bitcoin in the face of currency depreciation risk is increasingly blurred. In such unusual market conditions, bitcoin begins to behave like an amplified, more volatile version of gold.
Gold commands a massive market of approximately $30 trillion, with primary holders including central banks, sovereign institutions, and large asset allocation firms. This capital pool far exceeds the venture capital and native crypto capital that dominated Bitcoin’s early pricing. If Bitcoin formally enters this category of store-of-value assets, its valuation framework will be benchmarked against a significantly larger market.
The correlation data leads to a clear conclusion: investors are no longer choosing between gold and bitcoin to hedge against currency depreciation, but rather allocating to both assets simultaneously to jointly mitigate risk. For the past fifteen years, bitcoin has been priced according to the logic of a risk asset; if this strong correlation with gold persists, its value narrative over the next fifteen years could be fundamentally rewritten.