Bitcoin Bulls Still Target $84,000 Despite 9-Month Rate Hike Concerns

Hu 火星 Finance reports that on August 29, after Federal Reserve Chair Powell signaled a hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole symposium, Bitcoin surged then reversed, dropping as low as $76,877 on Friday—a notable pullback from its overnight high of $81,455—and ultimately closing at $77,557, down 3.39% for the day. Earlier in the week, Bitcoin had posted double-digit gains, but the resistance zone between $81,000 and $82,500 once again capped upward momentum. Powell stated that the pace of U.S. inflation decline remains insufficient and that the Fed “has more work to do” before achieving its 2% inflation target, prompting markets to significantly raise expectations for a September rate hike. CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a September rate hike rose from 35.4% the previous day to 55.7%. The hawkish shock triggered concentrated liquidations of leveraged positions across the crypto market, with approximately $481 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours, including over $360 million in long positions. However, the market’s long-term bullish sentiment has not significantly reversed. Prediction market data indicates traders currently assign a 77% probability to Bitcoin reaching its next major target of $84,000 and a 23% probability of falling to $55,000—Friday’s pullback has not altered these odds. Fundamentally, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded eight consecutive trading days of net inflows as of Wednesday, accumulating approximately $2.8 billion—the longest continuous inflow period since April. Technically, Bitcoin’s RSI stands at approximately 69.7, still below the extreme overbought levels previously associated with pullbacks; should prices decline further, the $73,670–$75,157 range will become a key support level for bulls, while reclaiming the $81,000–$82,500 zone remains critical to unlocking new all-time highs. In the short term, Powell’s weakening of forward guidance means the market lacks a clear policy path ahead of the next FOMC meeting, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to sharp volatility driven by inflation data and shifting interest rate expectations.