Bitcoin and Ethereum in Bearish Order Flow Amid NFP Macro Test

• Bitcoin has entered a sluggish drift lower phase.
• The market is pinned between $62,228 and the $64,000 zone.
• Ethereum failed to break above $2,000 and is keeping lower magnets in play.
• NFP will be the week’s main macro trigger.

The turn of the month did not bring an impulsive release to the crypto market. Bitcoin ignored last week’s bullish scenarios: local highs remained untouched, and instead of a full technical correction, the chart shifted into a sluggish drift lower phase, forming a bearish order flow.

Loud geopolitical statements in late July proved in practice to be little more than verbal intervention without real escalation. This led to localized stop runs on long positions.

At the start of August, the market is pinned between two key levels: last week’s low at $62,228 and the resistance zone around $64,000.

The current structure points to a lack of liquidity overhead and the need to work through lower pools before defining the medium-term trend.

Scenario A — liquidity sweep below and a bounce

Two clear areas of attraction have formed below: last week’s low at $62,228 and an hourly price imbalance (1H FVG) around the round $61,000 level.

Within this move, both a quick sweep of the extreme followed by a buyback and a deeper dip that fills the inefficiency are possible. A retest of the $60,000 level from the underside also remains valid.

Scenario B — a manipulative sweep before the drop

A technical break below last week’s lows, followed by a V-shaped bounce into the upper four-hour fair value gap (4H FVG) zone to scoop up short liquidity.

After this refuel is complete, the asset returns to a corrective move. This week’s packed macro calendar creates ideal conditions for a two-way whipsaw.

Scenario C — a straight-line continuation of the sell-off

The least likely option, where selling pressure intensifies without any prior pullbacks or liquidity grabs from above. The chart continues to slide in a straight line, printing fresh local lows.

• Strategy earnings. The market is waiting for updated figures from Michael Saylor. The key question is whether the company kept building fiat reserves for future interventions or made its first direct spot bitcoin purchase in two months
• the macro block: PMI, ADP, and NFP. A series of reports on US business activity and the labor market. Friday’s data on new jobs — the number of employed people outside the US agricultural sector (Non-Farm Payrolls) — will have a decisive impact on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) autumn meeting, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trend, and risk appetite;
• the Middle East track and the oil factor. Washington’s rhetoric is shifting toward finding negotiation channels. Against the backdrop of depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks and the approaching Senate elections, the White House needs to maintain economic stability while avoiding energy price shocks;
• Big Tech earnings season. The results from tech giants will determine the resilience of the AI-sector trend and the overall direction of equity markets, which could trigger a temporary decoupling from the crypto market.

The leading altcoin showed a similar dynamic: a strong opening impulse was quickly absorbed by sellers, and the psychological $2,000 level held even amid the news hook around the network’s 11th anniversary.

The asset still hasn’t interacted with the key liquidity pool above. This raises the question of the nature of the current decline: the start of a full-fledged correction or an intermediate pullback.

The key reference point for Ethereum remains bitcoin’s behavior and the dominance index. If dominance remains strong, Ethereum can post broader impulses in either direction.

Scenario A — a synchronized rebound behind the leader

A repeat of bitcoin’s structure: a correction into last week’s lows to sweep liquidity, followed by an upside reaction. The nearest resistance will be the 4H FVG around $1,925; once it is cleared, the path opens toward the month’s highs and the $2,000 mark.

Scenario B — a deep flush

The aggressive rally to $2,000 left a large inefficiency below the current price that still hasn’t been tested. If the broader market cools and US unemployment data comes in strong, the asset may move to deeply fill the lower gap.

Scenario C — cascading position flush

The least likely scenario of a straight, no-bounce sell-off. If the macro backdrop deteriorates sharply, the price heads down toward $1,500, with a chance of testing untapped liquidity at $1,384.

July confirmed that in range-bound conditions, priority goes to setup quality rather than trade count. Historically, August is a difficult and volatile month for the crypto market, which calls for extra caution.

The main focus shifts to lower timeframes from 1H and below for precise intraday execution. Opening positions “head-on” near the range boundaries carries elevated risk.

Every trade should be backed by a clear invalidation plan, margin control, and a mandatory check of DXY dynamics during Friday data releases.

Last trading week completely crushed the Dollar Index’s bullish attempts. The released data package showing slowing inflation — in particular, Core PCE down to 0.1% — and cooling in the US economy — in particular, US GDP at 1.5% versus a 2.1% forecast — triggered a strong bearish impulse.

DXY reversed from the upper resistance levels and went into a steep dive, breaking prior supports and printing a fresh previous week low (PWL) at 99.652.

At the moment, DXY is trading around 99.820, squeezed inside a newly formed 4H FVG right above the weekly low.

The index has entered a zone of heightened sensitivity: the new five-day stretch is entirely focused on the state of the US labor market — from the JOLTS and ADP reports to Friday’s final NFP. This will force the dollar to define its medium-term direction.

On the four-hour timeframe, the bearish structure has taken a local pause, shifting into an accumulation phase to build strength ahead of a new impulse.

Key structural levels:

• last week’s high (PWH) — 101,544, and last month’s high (PMH) — 101,800. This is the updated prior weekly high and a strategic monthly resistance level, which serve as the main reference points for buyers during a deep correction
• PWL 99,652 — a fresh weekly low, the current defensive line for buyers, and the main liquidity magnet
• last month’s low (PML) — 98,919. This is the global monthly low and the primary target for sellers if a full-fledged downtrend resumes
• 4H FVG zones: directly above the current price, around 100,70-100,90, a dense bearish imbalance has formed. Below, right in the current price area of 99,80-100,10, price is testing a bullish 4H FVG, while a deeper inefficiency block sits in the 98,50-98,80 zone below PML

Scenario A — defending the current 4H FVG with an aggressive push to the upper highs

The index finds strong limit demand inside the current lower imbalance, holds the PWL 99,652 level, forms a V-shaped reversal, confidently absorbs the intermediate 4H FVG at 100,70-100,90, and moves to take out the PWH 101,544.

This setup would be a signal for dollar strength and would put pressure on crypto assets.

Scenario B — a measured rebound toward the upper FVG/PWH

A more technical trade of the current accumulation. DXY delivers an impulsive bounce into the upper imbalance zone at 100,70-100,90, where, after local accumulation, it builds volume to retest the PWH 101,544 resistance.

This allows the market to reset indicators ahead of the NFP release.

Scenario C — PWL breakdown and a drop into the deep lower FVG

If labor market data comes in weak, the Dollar Index fails to attract buyers, immediately breaks below PWL 99.652, pierces the monthly low PML 98.919, and dumps into the unfilled imbalance zone at 98.50–98.80.

This capitulation-style flush in DXY will give Bitcoin and Ethereum buyers room to push for their key targets: $67,255 and $2,020+.

• Monday, August 3, 16:45 and 17:00 — S&P Global and ISM manufacturing PMI readings
• Tuesday, August 4, 17:00 — June JOLTS job openings
• Wednesday, August 5, 15:15 and 17:00 — ADP employment change, services PMI, and the US ISM non-manufacturing index
• Thursday, August 6, 15:30 — initial jobless claims
• Friday, August 7, 15:30 — the official US labor market report: Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings growth for July.

The first half of the week will be about working local zones within the established range. The main inflection point — and the direction for the dollar’s medium-term trend — will be set on Friday during the NFP release.

Action plan: trade cautiously through Wednesday, prioritizing selective intraday setups on lower timeframes starting from 1H.

On Friday, we completely avoid “market” entries at the moment the news drops — we wait for structure confirmation on the DXY 4-hour candles.

Сообщение Downward Order Flow and the NFP Test: Trader Forecasts Moves for Bitcoin and Ethereum появились сначала на INCRYPTED.