Bitcoin Analysts Warn $82K Rally May Be a 'Bull Trap', Predict Drop to $40K-$51K

Bitcoin looks poised for a deeper drop after a failed rally above $82,000, with two well-followed analysts warning that the recent rebound may be a classic “bull trap.” Market commentator Kabuki — who correctly flagged Bitcoin’s previous peak and the 2022 bear-market low, according to his own account — says BTC has not yet hit this cycle’s bottom. In a recent post on X, he mapped the current price action to a downward zigzag pattern that typically precedes a cycle low, calling the recent relief rally around the level he labeled “y” a bull trap. Kabuki projects a prolonged slide toward a final-cycle bottom around $40,000 (area “z”). His path from today’s levels (roughly $79,000 in his scenario) is incremental and brutal: an initial fall to about $61,000, a further drop to roughly $47,000 (more than a 40% decline from present prices), a short-lived recovery to near $55,000, and then a final crash that wipes gains and lands around $41,000. He expects BTC to first soften toward the $70,000 area within days, with the steeper leg to the $40,000 zone playing out around June 2026. Kabuki points to his track record — saying he called a top above $126,000 in October 2025 and the $15,000 bottom in November 2022 — to back his bearish roadmap, and he illustrated the structure in annotated charts shared on X. Echoing that caution, crypto analyst Chiefy warns Bitcoin is trapped in what he calls the “longest and final bull trap” of this bear cycle. In a separate X post, Chiefy suggested the real correction could begin imminently and projected a potential drop to about $51,000 within 12 days starting May 17, supporting the thesis with examples of prior bull-trap reversals that punished late entrants. These are analysts’ scenarios, not market certainties. Both viewpoints highlight a common theme: recent relief rallies may be temporary and traders should be aware of the risk of further downside if the bull-trap pattern continues to play out.