Bitcoin Analysts See $100K Target After Key Cost-Basis Reclaim

• Analyst says four previous Warm Supply Realized Price reclaims preceded Bitcoin rallies ranging from 34% to 159%.
• Ted Pillow sees $100K possible after a weekly close above $83K, despite declining spot demand and mixed flows.
• Bitcoin’s RSI and MACD are improving, while $80K-$81K resistance and $78K support remain key levels to watch.

Bitcoin is trading near $79,300 after reclaiming its Warm Supply Realized Price, according to analyst Ali Charts. The metric tracks BTC that last moved between one week and six months earlier. CryptoBullet and Ted Pillow also highlighted separate signals involving Bitcoin’s cycle, spot demand, and technical structure. Their comments came as Bitcoin tests resistance around the $80,000 area.

Ali Charts said four previous reclaims preceded sizable Bitcoin rallies. The January 2023 reclaim preceded a 69% rise, while October 2023 produced a 159% gain. The October 2024 reclaim came before a 74% advance. Meanwhile, the April 2025 reclaim preceded a 34% increase.

However, CryptoBullet said the bearish case remains open if July 1’s $57,750 level marked the cycle bottom. He identified Oct. 4, Oct. 17, and Nov. 21 as dates matching earlier bear market bottoms. CryptoBullet set Dec. 1 as his deadline for becoming fully bullish.

Ted Pillow reported that Bitcoin recently formed a golden cross on the daily timeframe. However, he also said spot demand is declining. Pillow said Bitcoin could reach $100,000 this year after a weekly close above $83,000.

The current market data places BTC at $79,300. Bitcoin recovered from the $77,700-$78,000 area after the Sept. 8-9 sell-off. It remains below $80,000, with resistance around $80,000-$81,000. Support is near $78,000, while stronger protection appears around $77,000-$77,700.

A move above $79,300 could place $80,000 within reach. A break above $80,000 could bring $81,000-$81,500 into focus. The RSI reads 59.12, above its moving-average line at 49.80. It remains below the 70 overbought threshold.

Meanwhile, the MACD has turned positive, with displayed values of 107.58 and 58.02. The histogram has also moved into positive territory. Spot flows have remained mixed. Continued inflows could support recovery toward $80,000-$82,000, while persistent outflows could expose $77,000 and $75,600.