The market is currently at a critical turning point. Multiple independent technical indicators are gradually converging on the same conclusion: the Bitcoin bear market that began in October 2025 may be nearing its end—or has already ended. Unlike the prolonged and repeatedly tested bear market of 2022, this cycle has seen clear structural changes in the market. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the阶段性 relief of regulatory uncertainty have removed the environment that previously allowed for passive, excessive selling pressure during price declines. Meanwhile, historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin rarely transitions directly into a sustained uptrend without first undergoing consolidation. The current phase is more likely a period of consolidation following bottom confirmation.
Under this context, the reference value of a single indicator is limited, but as multiple signals begin to emerge simultaneously, the conclusion they point to is becoming clearer: the market is transitioning from a downtrend toward a confirmed turning point.
Technical signals cluster together: from bottom formations to trend recovery
From a technical structure perspective, the most critical change in this market cycle is "signal resonance." First, the weekly stochastic indicator has returned above 20, a pattern typically emerging after the market's worst phase and historically more indicative of a bottom formation than a continuation of the decline. Meanwhile, new trend signals have reappeared, triggering again after two previous unfulfilled instances, significantly enhancing their reliability.
Second, the price of Bitcoin is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average (approximately $77,592), a level long regarded as a key reference for distinguishing between bull and bear markets. With the current price oscillating near $75,000, reclaiming this range is likely a matter of time. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, it will serve as a clear confirmation of a trend shift.
Additionally, the monthly RSI may also return above its moving average. Historically, this signal has often appeared near the bottom of bear markets. If it occurs again in this cycle, it will further reinforce the view that the market has completed its bottom formation. Overall, while these indicators have limited significance when appearing individually, their simultaneous occurrence within the same time window indicates that market conditions have shifted from “continuation of a downtrend” to “gradual establishment of a bottom structure.”
Key price range confirmed: From consolidation recovery to upward preparation
Beyond technical indicators, price itself remains the most critical validation factor. The market is currently testing the key range of $66,000–$73,000. The high of approximately $73,084 in March 2024 has formed a medium-term top structure. If price can effectively break above and sustainably hold within this range, it would signal a substantive reversal of the prior downtrend.
Structurally, this round of price action shows some similarities to that of a year ago: the market rapidly declined under external shocks, then entered a narrow consolidation phase, ultimately completing a trend shift through an upward breakout. The price has now begun testing the upper boundary of the range; if this rhythm continues, an upward move toward $88,000 or higher in the short term would not be overly aggressive. Meanwhile, $64,972 has become a key support level at this stage. As long as the price remains above this level, the overall trend will gradually shift from neutral to bullish. Therefore, rather than asking whether the market has “already entered a bull market,” the more critical question is: will the price successfully break out of the range to confirm the trend shift?
Currently, five signals are gradually pointing in the same direction: the weekly stochastic indicator has turned stronger, trend signals have reappeared, price is approaching the 21-week moving average, the monthly RSI shows potential for confirmation, and the previous downtrend has been effectively broken. A single signal alone is insufficient to draw a conclusion, but when these signals converge at the same stage, the reliability of the resulting conclusion increases significantly. Overall, the bear market that began in October 2025 may be nearing its end.
For the market, the focus is shifting: the question is no longer whether Bitcoin will continue to recover, but rather how quickly and how far the upward movement will unfold once the trend truly switches. In this process, breakthroughs in price ranges and changes in liquidity conditions will become the most critical variables to monitor in the next phase.
Some of the above insights are from BIT on Target, Contact usto get the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investments should be made with caution. This content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made only after carefully considering your personal circumstances and consulting with a financial professional. BIT assumes no responsibility for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.