Bitcoin is re-entering a bull market cycle. Previously, Bitcoin reached the downside target zone of this bear market correction and confirmed the cycle low after stabilizing at $62,900. The price then broke above the 21-week moving average at $69,272, further confirming the end of the bear market. Currently, Bitcoin has risen to around $84,000–$86,000, surpassing the May 2026 high and reclaiming the 1-year moving average, with monthly cycle indicators further confirming that the bear market has ended.
Meanwhile, the U.S. federal debt has reached approximately $40.1 trillion. Overlaying the Bitcoin price with U.S. federal debt yields an implied fair value for Bitcoin of around $105,000. As debt continues to expand, this trend will continue to provide long-term structural support for Bitcoin. However, recent strength in the dollar, combined with Bitcoin’s short-term overbought condition, may lead to a period of consolidation.
Bear market confirmed over: Bitcoin has reclaimed the market average cost
This rally was initially driven by short covering, and the first wave of FOMO emerged after Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000. Since then, the price has broken through key resistance levels, including the March 2024 high of $73,084, the resistance formed by the April 2025 tariff announcement, and the May 2026 high, while also reclaiming the 1-year moving average. Bitcoin has now fully recovered the primary resistance zone since March 2024 and is trading above the 1-year moving average, further increasing the probability of a sustained breakout.
More importantly, Bitcoin has reclaimed its True Market Mean—the average holding cost of all holders—at approximately $76,897. With the price trading in the $84,000–$86,000 range, the entire market has returned to profitability. Historical patterns show that traders in unrealized losses often continue to sell, increasing downward pressure; now that the market has risen above the average cost, FOMO is returning, and traders’ willingness to increase leverage is rising accordingly.
Meanwhile, as the U.S. federal debt surpassed $40 trillion, Bitcoin also broke above its downtrend line since the October 2025 high. Based on the current U.S. federal debt level of approximately $40.1 trillion, Bitcoin’s implied fair value is around $105,000. Although prices may oscillate above and below this trend center, the continued expansion of debt levels will provide long-term structural support for Bitcoin.
The peak of this cycle may point to $185,000–$215,000.
Based on the market's average cost basis, historical experience shows that Bitcoin bull markets typically peak only after the price reaches at least an 85% premium above the true market average. At the current true market average of $76,897, this corresponds to a price of approximately $142,260. However, this level is not the final peak, but rather the minimum threshold at which the bull market begins its final ascent. As Bitcoin rises and trading volume increases, new buyers enter at higher prices, causing the market's average cost basis to rise accordingly. Therefore, the peak of this bull cycle should exceed $142,260.
In the previous cycle, Bitcoin first reached an 85% premium at approximately $73,000 in March 2024, before ultimately rising to $126,000, representing a multiple of about 1.7x. However, the premium multiple has been compressing cycle after cycle. If this cycle further declines to a 1.3–1.5x multiple, and using approximately $142,000 as the baseline, the potential top range would be around $185,000–$215,000.
However, this does not mean Bitcoin will rapidly rise to around $200,000 in the near term. The previous cycle took approximately 19 months from the first appearance of an 85% premium signal to reaching the peak, as the real market average needs time to catch up to the price. Therefore, a peak near $200,000 is more likely to occur between 2028 and 2029, rather than imminently.
Overall, Bitcoin has reclaimed the 21-week and 1-year moving averages, formed a higher high, and pulled the entire market back above the average cost, with monthly cycle indicators confirming the end of the bear market. In the short term, a stronger U.S. dollar and overbought conditions may lead to a temporary consolidation; from a longer-term perspective, the fair value derived from the U.S. debt model is $105,000, the cyclical minimum target based on the true market average framework is $142,260, and the final peak could range between $185,000 and $215,000.
However, this peak still has time and distance to cover. The previous cycle took approximately 19 months from the appearance of the 85% premium signal to the final peak; therefore, this cycle’s peak near $200,000 is more likely to occur between 2028 and 2029, rather than as a near-term target.
Some of the above insights are from BIT on Target; contact us for the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks; investments should be made with caution. This content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made only after carefully considering your personal circumstances and consulting with a financial professional. BIT is not liable for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.