The market never lacks opportunities; it lacks understanding them at the right time and in the right way.

Author and source: BIT (formerly Matrixport)

On the afternoon of August 26, during the Bitcoin Asia 2026 conference, BIT (formerly Matrixport), a global digital asset financial services group, hosted an investment opportunities forum in Hong Kong under the theme "Traditional Capital Markets, Digital Assets, and Beyond." The event brought together over ten distinguished speakers, including institutional investors, family office representatives, renowned financial commentators, media professionals, and academics, for an in-depth dialogue on macroeconomic cycles and digital asset allocation strategies. During the week of the forum, Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound, briefly surpassing the $80,000 mark to reach a three-month high. Fueled by shifting macroeconomic liquidity expectations and a recovery in market risk appetite, discussions intensified around whether digital assets had emerged from their recent trough and entered a new allocation window. Over 200 investors, institutional representatives, and industry partners from Hong Kong and around the world attended the event.

Macro Outlook: From Digital Assets to Multi-Asset Allocation — Understand the Merrill Clock and Asset Rotation Patterns

The forum was opened by Cynthia Wu, Co-Founder and Chief Business Officer of BIT. Over the past seven years, BIT has consistently built its business on security and risk management, continuously refining its trading, custody, and operational systems. Throughout this period, BIT’s business has remained centered on the core principle of providing customers with long-term, sustainable financial services under controllable risk. This year, BIT extended this approach to additional asset classes, officially transitioning into a multi-asset digital finance platform: in February, it launched spot trading for U.S. stocks, followed by margin trading and options, with cumulative trading volume for these products now reaching approximately $4 billion. By embedding risk management throughout its growth, BIT continues to deliver long-term value to its clients—a journey made possible by the enduring trust of its customers and the support of partners in infrastructure, products, and services. BIT itself remains in a constant state of learning and development. Looking ahead, the platform will further enhance its service offerings by introducing HKD deposits and withdrawals, as well as Hong Kong stock trading, continuing to strengthen its role in connecting traditional finance with digital assets.

Following this, BIT特邀 analyst Markus Thielen delivered an in-depth presentation on macroeconomic cycles, systematically reviewing historical patterns and helping investors clarify the next potential direction of asset value movements. Based on historical price data of Bitcoin over the past fourteen years, Markus built upon the widely accepted "four-year halving" market consensus to further distill a price pattern of "35 months of rally followed by 12 months of correction": a price break below the one-year moving average typically signals a bear market phase, while a reclamation above both the one-year and 21-week moving averages—combined with monthly RSI approaching cycle lows, declining demand for put options, and the breakout of long-term downtrends—often indicates the end of a correction and the beginning of a new upward cycle. However, he emphasized that Bitcoin’s own price cycle, when overlaid with the longer-term macro "debt-liquidity supercycle," exhibits阶段性交错 rather than a simple linear relationship: U.S. debt levels and Bitcoin prices do not move in lockstep; rather, the debt trend determines the long-term upward slope, dollar strength and liquidity determine when the rally initiates, and Bitcoin’s internal price cycle dictates the specific rhythm of each upswing and correction. According to his analysis, we are currently at a confluence of three key factors: ongoing debt expansion, the end of dollar strength, and Bitcoin’s completion of approximately a 12-month correction. He therefore believes a new upward cycle—lasting roughly two to three years—is now beginning. He shared a compelling valuation anchor from his research: based on current U.S. debt levels, Bitcoin’s fair value should be around $100,000, suggesting that current prices remain relatively undervalued.

Roundtable Discussion: As the valuation logic of the AI sector is restructured, where will global capital flow?

The first panel, moderated by Sunny, CEO of PANews, featured Elio Cui, Head of BIT’s brokerage business; Ming ZHAO, CEO of AVS; Crystal He, CEO of Delin Family Office; and Sun Zihao, a well-known Hong Kong stock commentator and full-time trader, to discuss the current situation where AI giants are facing tightening cash flows: whether AI can still attract long-term capital inflows, or whether capital rotation has already shifted toward new directions.

In June of this year, the seven tech giants collectively lost approximately $2.4 trillion in market value, serving as the starting point for this discussion. Guests debated whether capital expenditure guidance in the AI industry would slow down, and whether cash flows could sustain such massive investments amid continuously rising debt levels across companies. Viewed through the longer lens of the tech cycle, this correction resembles another healthy purge akin to the 2000 dot-com bubble— the sectors themselves won’t disappear; only those companies capable of enduring the cycle will endure.

Regarding the next allocation direction of capital, panelists’ views have diverged into two parallel tracks: “defensive, certainty-driven assets” and “structural, high-volatility assets.” Some capital remains committed to high-growth sectors like AI to pursue excess returns, while other capital has shifted toward gold, RWA, and high-quality assets with stable cash flows to hedge against uncertainty—gold, in particular, continues to attract strong demand amid geopolitical instability. Elio explained that as market expectations rise regarding interest rate hikes or a Fed policy pivot, capital tends to rotate from high-volatility, high-growth assets toward relatively scarce and more certain assets like gold and Bitcoin—this is precisely why he is currently focusing on gold, Bitcoin, RWA, and high-quality infrastructure companies with reliable cash flows. He is optimistic about the growth potential of stablecoins and RWA, but acknowledges that RWA development still faces a widespread challenge: despite large issuance volumes, trading activity remains sluggish. Crystal He further corroborated this from an institutional investor perspective: although trillion-dollar institutions like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton are making long-term bets in this space, they still face four key limitations—limited asset diversity (approximately 40% of the $31.4 billion in issuance consists of U.S. Treasuries), insufficient liquidity, predominantly single-chain development lacking cross-chain collaboration, and the ongoing need for regulatory clarity and policy guidance.

The tokenization of U.S. equities, the category with the highest RWA issuance volume, faces similar challenges. On the surface, this appears to be due to the strong wealth effect and appeal of U.S. stocks, enabling a broader range of investors to access this asset class for the first time. But the more fundamental reason is not the asset itself, but "lowered barriers"—tokenization has given users who previously could not open accounts their first opportunity to invest in U.S. equities. According to industry data, the monthly on-chain trading volume of tokenized U.S. equities reached approximately $9.22 billion in June 2026, translating to an average weekly trading volume of about $2.1 billion—still less than one-180th of the Nasdaq Exchange’s daily trading volume (approximately $383.7 billion). This reveals that even after barriers have been lowered, the market has yet to truly test whether liquidity and underlying asset redemption can be reliably delivered: investors often only discover, when attempting large-scale trades or redemptions, that the underlying U.S. equity liquidity behind the tokens is far less abundant than assumed. This phenomenon underscores a key truth—the ability to directly connect to the U.S. capital markets with authentic underlying assets and sufficient liquidity remains irreplaceable in the short term.

Fireside Chat: The Web3 industry is transitioning from unbridled growth driven by conceptual narratives to an institutionalized phase built on verifiable trust.

Wendy Jiang, General Manager of Cactus Custody under BIT, and Daniel Zhang, Head of the Solana Foundation’s Chinese-speaking region, discussed the development ecosystem of public blockchains and the institutional pathways for stablecoins and RWA. As the Web3 industry gradually transitions from a phase of free growth driven by narratives and concepts to an institutionalized stage dominated by institutional capital and built on verifiable records, competition among public blockchains is no longer about whose story sounds more compelling, but rather who can demonstrate a security track record and genuine asset activity that withstands both time and regulatory scrutiny. Daniel explicitly noted that the Hong Kong SFC has currently approved only three spot ETFs for cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, and Solana—among which the Solana ETF is the world’s first of its kind launched in Hong Kong. Moreover, under Hong Kong’s regulatory framework, the number of tokens permitted for retail trading remains extremely limited; in practice, only ETH and Solana are viable public blockchains capable of supporting long-term, large-scale distribution of RWA and stablecoins. He also introduced a highly professional criterion for evaluation: to measure a blockchain’s true economic vitality, one cannot rely solely on the total issuance of stablecoins, but must examine the “velocity of capital”—in terms of transaction volume, Solana currently ranks among the global top tier alongside Ethereum. Wendy used the metaphor of a “highway” to describe the role of custodians as “service stations” during the influx of institutional capital into blockchain ecosystems—the greater the traffic (institutional capital), the more robust the fuel stations and support infrastructure must be. Both agreed that the window of opportunity for new blockchains has closed; historical records recognized by institutions and regulators are extremely difficult for newcomers to replicate.

Peak discussion: The new phase of digital asset investment, shifting from "whether to allocate" to "how to allocate"

The second panel, moderated by Megan Xiao, Head of Structured Products at BIT, featured Ding Long, Investment Director at TDTC; Charles, CIO of B7 Capital; Hu Xuanfeng, Director of Digital Assets at Fosun Wealth Holdings; and Professor Yu Jianing, President of Uweb, discussing the new phase of digital asset allocation. While investors previously focused on "Will BTC rise?", they are now more concerned with "Seeing the right direction but struggling to time the entry"—how to manage this price exposure and use structured tools for multi-asset allocation is gradually emerging as a new approach. With this question in mind, the panelists offered insights from their respective professional perspectives.

President Wu Weining began by addressing investor psychology: he observed that participants are transitioning from speculators to multi-asset allocators, no longer fixated on waiting for the "final drop," and identified four key allocation themes: "carbon-silicon symbiosis, lifespan doubling, quantum leap, and deglobalization." Mr. Hu from Fosun Wealth approached from the perspective of asset characteristics: crypto assets are evolving from "hype concepts" into containers for tokenizing traditional assets, and institutional-grade custodians are the critical infrastructure enabling institutions to truly participate in global asset allocation. Charles, from a quantitative trading perspective, noted that while crypto strategies have higher Sharpe ratios than traditional markets, their stability remains insufficient; the growing presence of market makers and institutions is compressing arbitrage profits, and high-frequency trading capacity is too limited—the era of passive gains from single-direction strategies is fading. Investors should include a portion of stable return products uncorrelated with Beta in their asset allocation and avoid betting everything on coin prices alone. Ding Long from TDTC added from an industry perspective: "mining as asset production" and "balance sheet management" are entirely different matters; miners must not only assess the stability of their power sources but also leverage structured products from platforms like BIT to manage and enhance cash flow.

Megan, drawing from BIT’s own structured business model, concluded that digital asset allocation is no longer a simple "Buy & Hold" strategy, but a dynamic management process driven by structured tools—identifying trends is important, but anchoring to the right tools and execution pathways determines whether you can navigate through market cycles. BIT’s structured products are the concrete embodiment of this "tools + pathways" approach: by transforming professional strategies such as volatility management and yield enhancement into standardized, accessible products, BIT enables retail investors to achieve structural returns previously accessible only to institutions—without having to build complex positions themselves. This is one solution to the question of "how to allocate."

Closing Dialogue: Face-to-Face with Ni Da—From Fed Policy to Whether Young People Should Use Leverage

The forum’s final session featured Elio Cui, Head of BIT’s brokerage business, in conversation with Phyrex Ni Da, a renowned top-tier KOL in the Web3 space and a leading on-chain data and macroeconomic analyst, directly addressing the most highly anticipated topics of the event and further exploring Ni Da’s unique insights.

Regarding the Fed and Treasury’s policy path for the second half of the year, which has drawn significant market attention, Ni Da offers a judgment that differs from mainstream expectations: he believes the Fed will likely hold rates steady this year—“neither raising nor cutting rates.” Ni Da analyzes the economy from a more民生-oriented perspective: from the supply chain transmission of oil prices, to the drag on employment data from immigration deportation policies, to the fact that U.S. debt levels are now so high they cannot withstand further tightening—even the new Fed chair has quietly withdrawn forward guidance. To him, all these signs point to a signal that “rates are aiming to move lower.”

Regarding the most market-discussed question—"Why did Bitcoin suddenly surge past $80,000 these past two days?"—Ni Da, a seasoned trader, offers a grounded analysis of market liquidity: the trading volume during this rally hasn’t been exceptionally high; more accurately, "fewer sellers and more buyers" have shifted the supply-demand balance, pushing prices higher—not due to a sudden flood of new capital. On the subject of this cycle’s bottom, Ni Da clearly has a clear picture: he believes the current bottom structure is largely in place; even if another minor dip occurs, it’s most likely to stay within the $57,000–$58,000 range, with the likelihood of falling below $51,000 now minimal. This assessment is supported by his observation of Bitcoin spot ETF flows and institutional positioning: recent ETF inflows have shifted from阶段性 net outflows to sustained net inflows, and most high-net-worth institutions and public companies that have held Bitcoin long-term have not significantly reduced their holdings over the past few months. Some institutions that previously sold off have now halted their selling and stabilized their positions—these signals collectively indicate institutional recognition and confidence in the current price level.

In response to the heated online question of whether young people should use leverage, Ni Da refuses to preach from a position of superiority. He admits that for young people with limited capital, leverage within their risk tolerance is indeed one of the few practical ways to amplify returns; but the real challenge has never been whether to use leverage, but whether one can consistently maintain the ability to "stay at the table"—this is the skill that requires long-term learning and practice. When asked about his own "cards in hand," he reveals that he has been consistently using BIT’s U.S. stock platform’s options leverage and margin trading tools to dollar-cost average into index ETFs such as VOO and QQQ, precisely because BIT’s platform offers safe and stable leverage ratios that allow him to enhance capital efficiency.

From macro debt cycles to stablecoin infrastructure, from the competitive landscape of public blockchains to real-world drawdown data from quantitative strategies, and further to candid insights from seasoned traders on Fed policy and leverage philosophy, this forum stood out for its professionalism, presenting attendees—investors, institutional representatives, and industry partners—with a comprehensive map of the next wave of investment opportunities. As the attending guests consistently affirmed, "The market never lacks opportunities; it lacks understanding them at the right time and in the right way."

About BIT

BIT (formerly Matrixport), founded in 2019, is a leading global digital asset financial services group. Headquartered in Singapore, the group has offices in seven countries and regions worldwide, connecting traditional finance with digital asset markets through robust governance, technological capabilities, and compliant operations.

BIT provides comprehensive digital asset services for global institutions and professional investors, including trading, custody, asset management, liquidity, and financing solutions, with support for the on-chain integration and application of real-world assets (RWA).Its entities hold appropriate licenses and are regulated in Singapore, Hong Kong, Switzerland, the UK, the US, and Bhutan, including Singapore’s Major Payment Institution (MPI) license and Switzerland’s FINMA Collective Asset Management license.

The group currently manages assets exceeding $6 billion, with monthly trading volumes surpassing $7 billion, has paid over $2 billion in total interest to customers, and is valued at more than $1 billion. It has been featured on the 2024 Hurun Global Unicorn List and the 2025 Singapore FinTech Unicorn List.

Disclaimer

1. This content is solely for activity summaries and general information sharing; it does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, nor any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any securities, digital assets, or other financial products.

2. The comments, opinions, and data presented by the guests are solely their personal views, have not been independently verified by BIT, and do not represent the views of BIT or its affiliated entities. BIT makes no representations or warranties regarding their accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.

3. This article may contain forward-looking statements and descriptions regarding future markets, business, or products. Such statements are based on assumptions as of the date of publication and involve uncertainties; actual results may differ materially. The timing and availability of related business and product launches are subject to regulatory approvals and internal arrangements, and may be changed or canceled.

4. Digital asset prices can be highly volatile and may fluctuate dramatically in a short period due to market, technical, or regulatory factors, potentially resulting in the loss of your entire principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

5. Derivative instruments such as leveraged trading, margin trading, and options carry high risks; losses may exceed the initial investment and may trigger forced liquidation. These products are not suitable for all investors. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions.

6. Structured products and certain services are available only to professional investors who meet the suitability requirements of the relevant jurisdictions. Terms, risks, and applicable investor groups are subject to the legal documentation of the products.

7. The data in this article is sourced from third-party public information and industry statistics, as of August 28, 2026.

8. This content is not directed at any individuals in jurisdictions where the dissemination or use of such information is prohibited by local laws, nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation in such jurisdictions.

9. The services offered and licensing status of each entity under BIT vary by jurisdiction and are subject to the specific scope of each entity’s licenses.