A working paper published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) found that stablecoin growth slows when U.S. banks raise deposit rates. BIS economist Inaki Aldasoro and Rashad Ahmed of the Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics used weekly U.S. data from January 2019 through June 2025. The authors concluded that banks retain some influence over the pace of stablecoin adoption through deposit pricing.
Stablecoin market capitalization grew by about 15% over a typical 10-week period in the researchers' sample. Under the authors' baseline estimate, a one-basis-point increase in deposit rates reduced that growth to roughly 12%. Under a second method designed to isolate cause and effect, the same increase reduced estimated growth to about 6%. Stablecoins continued growing, but more slowly. A one-basis-point increase represents a sizable weekly change for slow-moving savings rates.
The authors used a pattern in bank behavior to distinguish causation from coincidence. Banks barely raise savings rates until the federal funds rate passes about 3%, after which banks adjust savings rates much faster. The paper found a stronger effect for Circle's USDC than for Tether's USDT. The authors attributed the difference to USDC's closer ties to U.S. users.
The working paper reflects the authors' views, not necessarily the BIS's views. The sample spans a single high-rate cycle during which stablecoins paid holders no interest. The authors said regulators should weigh whether stablecoin issuers may pay holders yield. The authors also called for consideration of the trade-offs of requiring issuers to hold part of their reserves in bank deposits.
Banks have lobbied to prohibit stablecoin yield, and the dispute was prominent during the Clarity Act's failed Senate vote. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Treasury are writing rules to implement the GENIUS Act. The GENIUS Act takes effect in January. President Donald Trump signed the law in July of last year. The law essentially legalized stablecoins in the United States and established rules for stablecoin issuance, use and custody.
The BIS has long scrutinized stablecoins and cryptocurrencies more broadly. The BIS argued in 2021 that blockchain-based digital dollars made central bank digital currencies more urgent. A 2023 BIS survey warned that stablecoins could threaten financial stability if widely adopted.