BlockBeats news, on August 3, investment firm Bernstein stated that the prospects of the U.S. CLARITY Act for Digital Asset Markets passing are declining; if the Senate fails to advance the bill before adjournment, it could trigger short-term negative market reactions, further pressuring valuations of Bitcoin and broader crypto assets.
Bernstein noted that the bill's failure could trigger a market "knee-jerk sell-off," but in the medium to long term, it may also prompt the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to accelerate regulatory actions, including clarifying token classification rules, establishing a regulatory framework for decentralized finance (DeFi), and advancing token offering exemption mechanisms.
Bernstein expects the crypto market to bottom out by the end of Q3 or early Q4, with momentum gradually recovering ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
Market expectations for the CLARITY Act being signed into law by the end of 2026 continue to decline. Data from the prediction platform Polymarket shows the probability of the bill passing this year has dropped to 31%, a 7-percentage-point decrease from a week ago and a 9-percentage-point decrease over the past month, with associated betting amounts totaling approximately $3.7 million.
The CLARITY Act aims to establish the first regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States, but faces opposition from the banking sector over provisions related to stablecoin yields. Previously, Galaxy Digital lowered the probability of the bill being enacted by 2026 to 50% and warned that the Senate’s window for advancement is narrowing.