Written by: Rita
Global semiconductor sales increased 131% year-over-year in July but declined 9.5% month-over-month, slightly above the historical average decline of 8.5%. On September 8, Bernstein released a WSTS tracking report indicating that memory remains the core growth driver, with year-over-year growth of 452% and contributing approximately $355 billion in new revenue year-to-date, accounting for 111% of the industry’s overall growth since the beginning of the year. Excluding memory, sales still rose 35% year-over-year.
The rise in memory prices accounted for nearly 70% of the industry's 111% increase this year. In July’s month-over-month data, most product categories outperformed seasonal trends, but regional performance varied significantly: China declined by 28%, while the Americas fell by only 0.4%.
Memory contributed nearly 70% of the growth, while non-memory increased by 35%.
In July, total semiconductor sales increased by 131% year-over-year, remaining high after a 144% surge in June. Memory continued to dominate growth with a 452% year-over-year increase, contributing approximately $355 billion in new industry revenue year-to-date, accounting for nearly 70% of the industry’s 111% overall gain since the beginning of the year. Memory price increases alone drove the majority of the industry’s growth.
Excluding memory, industry sales increased by 35% year-over-year, with demand for non-memory products also remaining robust. Over a three-month rolling basis, industry sales grew by 30.4%, significantly above the historical average of 5.5%. Memory sales rose 48.3% on a rolling basis, while non-memory sales reached 10.8%.
Each product outperformed seasonal trends on a环比 basis.
Overall sales in July decreased by 9.5% month-over-month, slightly below the historical average of 8.5%. However, performance across product categories generally exceeded seasonal trends.
Discrete devices decreased by 5.9% month-over-month, outperforming the seasonal average of 10.2%. Standard analog linear increased by 8.6% month-over-month, surpassing the 2.7% average. Logic devices grew by 2.2% month-over-month, exceeding the 0.9% decline. MCU declined by 1.5%, better than the 9.1% drop. DSP increased by 6.8%, outperforming a 5.1% decline. DRAM fell by 17.5%, better than the 25.7% decline. NAND decreased by 14.7%, outperforming the 28.8% drop.
MPU declined 8.2% month-over-month, below the seasonal average of 5.7%, making it one of the few categories underperforming historical trends. Optoelectronics, sensors, and analog application-specific products remained largely in line with historical averages.
Regional performances diverged, with China down 28% month-over-month.
Compared to the same period last year, total sales increased across all regions: Americas up 172.6%, Europe up 89.8%, Japan up 58.4%, China up 97.5%, and other Asia-Pacific regions up 140.3%.
On a sequential basis, regional performance showed significant divergence. The Americas declined by only 0.4%, Japan rose by 1.6%, Europe fell by 4.4%, other Asia-Pacific regions dropped by 4.7%, and China declined by 28.0%. Excluding memory, the sequential changes were +13.3% for the Americas, -5.9% for Europe, +0.2% for Japan, -5.9% for China, and -0.9% for other Asia-Pacific regions. China’s sharp decline was primarily driven by fluctuations in memory prices.
Shipment volumes remained flat, supported by memory prices.
Overall shipment volume in July was virtually flat month-over-month (-0.3%), with average selling price declining 9.3% MoM. Year-over-year, shipment volume increased 16.3%, and average selling price rose 98.8%, with memory prices remaining the primary driver of the significant YoY increase in ASP.
Shipments across product categories varied. Discrete devices, optoelectronics, and DSP shipments increased sequentially, while sensor, analog standard linear, logic, MPU, MCU, DRAM, and NAND shipments declined sequentially. On a three-month rolling basis, total shipments rose 10.2%, with all categories experiencing growth.
Memory ASP rose significantly quarter-over-quarter, with DRAM prices per bit increasing by 6.5% and NAND by 9.5%. This contrasts with a quarter-over-quarter decline in memory shipment volumes of over 20%, indicating that pricing factors continue to drive industry growth.
Cars and computer terminals are superior to seasonal patterns.
ASIC sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month, outperforming the historical average decline of 2.5%. In end markets, computers and peripherals rose 2.8% month-over-month, outperforming the seasonal decline of 3.0%; the automotive sector declined 0.5%, outperforming the seasonal decline of 5.3%; and multifunction and other segments declined 3.6%, outperforming the seasonal decline of 5.6%.
Consumer electronics declined by 8.2%, worse than the seasonal decline of 6.0%; wireless communications fell by 6.1%, worse than the seasonal decline of 0.1%; wired communications rose by 1.2%, below the seasonal increase of 3.9%. The resilience of automotive and industrial sectors, along with stronger-than-expected performance in computing, reflects structural support from AI-related demand in semiconductor end markets.
Bernstein's data shows that the semiconductor industry exhibited price-driven, structural differentiation in July. The rise in memory prices was the primary driver of overall growth, while healthy expansion in non-memory segments indicates that the industry's fundamentals are not overly concentrated in a single category. Regionally, the Chinese market saw a significant sequential decline; however, given the unique volatility of memory prices, this trend is insufficient to alter the industry's overall positive outlook.
Disclaimer
This article is a compilation and interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party brokerage research report (Bernstein, September 8, 2026), combined with publicly available market information. The ratings, price targets, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited herein reflect the views of the brokerage’s analysts and represent the position of their respective institution, not the views of Chaoxiang Research, nor do they constitute any investment advice.
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