Bernstein's latest forecast predicts that the annual trading volume of prediction markets will reach $10 trillion by 2035, significantly higher than its earlier estimate this year. The firm believes the core driver of industry expansion is no longer just sports events, but financial contracts tied to crypto assets, equities, and commodities.
The forecast has been significantly increased compared to the previous version.
In a report sent to clients on Tuesday, Bernstein stated that the prediction market is projected to reach approximately $410 billion in annual trading volume by 2026 and could rise to $10 trillion by 2035. In comparison, the firm had previously estimated in April this year that the market would reach $1 trillion by 2030.
According to their estimates, industry trading volume was approximately $50 billion in 2025 and has increased to about $300 billion in the first eight months of 2026. Bernstein expects the industry’s annual compound growth rate to be around 70% over the coming years.
- Trading volume in 2025 is approximately $50 billion.
- Approximately $410 billion is expected in 2026.
- Projected to reach $10 trillion by 2035
The proportion of financial asset contracts has increased.
The report suggests that the trading structure of prediction markets will undergo significant changes. In 2025, sports contracts accounted for approximately 61% of total trading volume, a share that may decline to 38% by 2035.
In contrast, the share of financial asset-related contracts is expected to rise from 12% to 49%, becoming the largest category for the first time. These financial asset contracts primarily include crypto assets, equities, and commodities.
Bernstein believes that such products allow traders to take positions directly based on event outcomes—for example, betting on whether a company’s quarterly shipment volume will reach a certain level—without having to buy or short its stock. The report also notes that the scope of perpetual contracts is expanding beyond crypto assets to include commodities and individual stocks.
Regulation remains a variable in the U.S. market.
Bernstein also noted that the U.S. sports prediction market is unlikely to receive a fully defined regulatory framework in the short term. The agency expects clear regulations may not emerge until 2027 or 2028.
This is because U.S. courts remain divided on whether such contracts should be classified as derivatives under federal regulation or as gambling products regulated at the state level. The unresolved regulatory classification also means that the expansion of sports prediction markets may proceed more slowly than that of financial contracts.
However, Bernstein still views the industry’s projected trading volume of approximately $410 billion in 2026 as a “floor” rather than a “ceiling.” According to its estimates, the potential pool of event contracts tied to crypto assets, equities, and commodities currently stands at around $7 quadrillion and could grow to $9 quadrillion by 2035. Even if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of this, annual trading volume in financial contracts could reach approximately $47 trillion.