Bernstein Predicts $1 Trillion in U.S. Prediction Market Volume by 2030

AiCoin

Release Time: 04/15/2026 06:42:29

Summary

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani forecasts that U.S. prediction market trading volume will reach $24 billion in 2026, a 370% year-over-year increase. He expects an 80% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with transaction volume hitting $1 trillion by early 2030. Chhugani attributes this growth to clearer federal regulations, blockchain tokenization, and digital currency integration. He notes that institutional markets will focus on economic, business, and political contracts, while the share of sports contracts may decline from over 60% to 50% by 2030. Enterprises and insurers could drive demand for hedging.

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani forecasts that the total trading volume of U.S. prediction markets will reach $240 billion in 2026, a 370% year-over-year increase. He predicts that annual trading volume will grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 80% between 2025 and 2030, reaching $1 trillion by early 2030. He believes that increased federal regulatory clarity, blockchain tokenization, and integration with digital currencies will drive market liquidity growth and potentially transform the structure of trading contracts. He expects institutional markets to develop around economic, business, and political contracts, with sports contract trading volume declining from over 60% today to half by 2030, while corporations and insurers may generate hedging demand.

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