Bernstein Maintains Outperform on Robinhood with $160 Target Amid Crypto Expansion

Headline: Bernstein keeps Outperform on Robinhood with $160 target, citing push into tokenization and exchange infrastructure Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform rating on Robinhood Markets and kept a $160 price target, arguing that the firm is evolving beyond a retail brokerage into a broader crypto and financial infrastructure player. Why Bernstein is bullish - Expansion beyond trading: Bernstein highlighted Robinhood’s recent crypto moves — notably Robinhood Chain, tokenized stocks, Bitstamp integration and Robinhood Earn — as drivers that open new revenue streams outside core trading. - Infrastructure play: The firm sees these products as complementary pieces of a shift toward financial infrastructure that lets Robinhood capture more of the transaction economics for itself rather than relying on third parties. Key metrics called out - Share price and upside: Robinhood shares closed at $89.84 on Wednesday, which Bernstein used to calculate roughly 78% upside to its $160 target. After a 3.6% drop to $86.60 on Thursday, the target implies about an 85% upside. - Robinhood Chain: Since launch, the blockchain has processed over $12 billion in decentralized exchange volume and completed more than 150 million transactions. - Robinhood Earn: Customer deposits have topped $200 million. - Tokenized U.S. stocks: Available via Robinhood Wallet in more than 120 countries, extending reach beyond the brokerage app. - Rothera exchange: Live since June, Rothera has processed over 3.5 billion contracts total (2.1 billion in Q2), produced $17 million of Q2 revenue and is now the third-largest U.S. prediction-market exchange. Prediction markets and revenue outlook Bernstein has previously flagged prediction markets as one of Robinhood’s fastest-growing segments—spiking during the FIFA World Cup. The firm projects prediction markets could grow from an estimated $150 million in 2025 to about $586 million in 2026, and believes the segment could meaningfully contribute to transaction-based and total company revenue over time. Strategic context Bernstein frames Robinhood’s moves alongside peers such as Coinbase and DraftKings, noting a broader industry trend: vertically integrating brokerage, exchange and clearing functions gives platforms a bigger share of execution and clearing revenue. Robinhood’s product stack — Robinhood Chain, Bitstamp, Robinhood Earn and tokenized stocks — positions it more like a financial infrastructure business than a pure crypto trading app. Risks Bernstein flags - Payment for order flow (PFOF): Changes to this model would materially affect Robinhood’s brokerage economics. - Regulatory uncertainty: U.S. rules on digital assets remain unsettled, with the SEC’s approach and potential reclassification of tokens as securities posing downside risk. - Early-stage market: Tokenization and new crypto products are still nascent; future regulatory or market shifts could slow rollout and adoption. Bottom line Despite the regulatory and model risks, Bernstein believes Robinhood’s expanding exchange infrastructure and growing portfolio of tokenized products warrant continued optimism, keeping its Outperform rating and the unchanged $160 price target.