Bernstein Maintains Outperform on Robinhood with $160 Price Target

Bernstein is sticking with an Outperform on Robinhood Markets and an unchanged $160 price target, arguing the retail app is transforming into a broader crypto and market infrastructure play — not just a trading app. Why Bernstein is bullish - The analyst note highlights that Robinhood’s crypto strategy has expanded well beyond spot trading into tokenization, blockchain infrastructure, and an exchange business. Bernstein sees these moves as new, durable levers for growth that support its bullish outlook. - Using Wednesday’s close of $89.84, Bernstein’s $160 target implies roughly 78% upside; after the stock slipped 3.6% to $86.60 on Thursday, that implied upside rises to about 85%. Product wins and traction - Robinhood Chain: Described as one of Robinhood’s biggest crypto initiatives, the blockchain has handled more than $12 billion in decentralized exchange volume and over 150 million transactions since launch. - Robinhood Earn: Has amassed more than $200 million in customer deposits, signaling demand for yield-style crypto products. - Tokenized U.S. stocks: Now accessible via Robinhood Wallet in more than 120 countries, extending Robinhood’s reach beyond its core brokerage users. - Bitstamp and other infrastructure: Bernstein groups Robinhood Chain, Bitstamp, Robinhood Earn and tokenized stocks as complementary building blocks that could diversify revenue over time. Rothera — the exchange story - Rothera, Robinhood’s in-house exchange that went live in June, has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts to date, including 2.1 billion in Q2 alone. - It generated $17 million of Q2 revenue and has already become the third-largest prediction market exchange in the U.S., according to Bernstein. - Management expects more prediction-market activity to migrate to Rothera and sees potential to offer the platform B2B to other Futures Commission Merchants, which could capture more trading and clearing economics in-house. The bigger picture - Bernstein argues Robinhood is moving from a pure brokerage to a financial infrastructure company. Owning more of the trading stack — exchange, clearing and custody — can help platforms retain a larger slice of transaction economics, a strategy also visible at Coinbase and DraftKings. - The firm previously highlighted prediction markets as a fast-growing segment for Robinhood (notably during the FIFA World Cup). Bernstein had projected prediction markets could generate $586 million in revenue by 2026 versus about $150 million in 2025, potentially representing ~17% of transaction-based revenue and ~10% of total revenue next year. Risks Bernstein flags - Payment for order flow: Any regulatory or structural changes to this model would matter because it still contributes materially to Robinhood’s brokerage business. - Regulatory uncertainty: U.S. regulation of digital assets remains unsettled. The SEC’s historical scrutiny and unresolved questions over which tokens are securities could influence product rollouts and tokenization efforts. - Early-stage industry risks: The digital asset market and associated products are still developing, so future regulatory decisions or market shifts could affect pace and profitability. Bottom line Bernstein believes Robinhood’s expanding crypto infrastructure — from Robinhood Chain and tokenized equities to Rothera and Earn — positions it as more than a trading app and supports the firm’s Outperform rating and $160 price target, despite the regulatory and structural risks that remain.