TL;DR
· SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase; Bernstein maintains an "Outperform" rating and a $239 price target.
· The Bernstein model still assumes that the calculated price will long-term decline to approximately $10/W, and Musk's proposed $30 to $50/W has not yet been fully factored into the target price.
· Connectivity provides the current profit foundation, AI calculations determine revenue elasticity, and Starship's full reusability determines whether long-term costs can truly decline.

SpaceX's first quarterly earnings since going public present a more aggressive growth narrative to the market: the Connectivity business continues to generate profits, AI computing revenue is growing rapidly, and Musk has brought forward the target year for annual revenue of $1 trillion from 2031 to 2030, suggesting it could be achieved as early as 2029.

According to the company’s SEC filings, Class A common shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. are trading under the ticker symbol SPCX on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas. Following the company’s release of second-quarter results for the period ended June 30 on August 4, Bernstein maintained an “Outperform” rating and a $239 price target. Based on the closing price of $125.33 on August 4 as listed in the report, this implies approximately 91% upside potential.

However, the $239 price target is not based on the full realization of the $1 trillion revenue goal. Bernstein’s own forecast for SpaceX’s 2031 revenue is $554 billion, significantly below management’s vision; its AI computing price model also still assumes a long-term decline to approximately $10 per watt. In other words, higher computing prices and more aggressive revenue targets represent potential upside beyond the current valuation.

On August 5, SpaceX's stock price further declined to $108.27, dropping 13.6% in a single day. This indicates that the market is not only evaluating this quarter's performance but also weighing factors such as AI capital expenditures, increased stock supply following the expiration of post-IPO lock-up periods, and whether Starship can enter a phase of high-frequency, low-cost launches.

Revenue increased by 92%, with Connectivity remaining the profit pillar.

In the second quarter, SpaceX's revenue reached $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase. According to Axios, the S&P Visible Alpha consensus was $6.9 billion, while the Bernstein report cited a market consensus of $6.546 billion. Despite differing methodologies, both figures point to the same conclusion: revenue this quarter significantly exceeded expectations.

The company reported a diluted loss per share of $0.09 in the second quarter, better than the market expectation of a $0.24 loss per share. The combined operating loss across its three business segments was $1.43 billion, significantly better than Bernstein’s market expectation of $17.3 billion, primarily due to narrower losses in the AI business and higher-than-expected margins in Connectivity.

Looking at individual businesses, the most stable remains the Connectivity business centered on Starlink. By the end of the second quarter, Starlink’s user base reached 12 million, an increase of 1.7 million from the first quarter, with average monthly revenue per user remaining at $66.

Connectivity generated quarterly revenue of $4.291 billion and an operating profit of $1.656 billion, resulting in an operating margin of approximately 38.6%, above Bernstein’s market expectation of 37%. It is also SpaceX’s only currently profitable business segment, providing critical support for continued investment in AI and Starship.

In the second quarter, Space completed 38 launches, including 10 for customers and 28 for internal purposes, achieving a total Mass to Orbit (MTO) of 485 tons. Revenue for this segment reached $962 million, exceeding the market expectation of $874 million; however, operating losses amounted to $542 million due to increased R&D investment in Starship.

The AI business has the highest revenue elasticity and capital requirements simultaneously. By the end of the second quarter, SpaceX’s nominal computing capacity reached 1.4 GW, up from 1.0 GW in the first quarter, and is expected to exceed 2 GW by the end of 2026. The AI segment generated $2.561 billion in revenue for the quarter, a 247% year-over-year increase, with AI solutions and infrastructure revenue reaching $2.194 billion.

The AI business reported an operating loss of $1.257 billion, corresponding to an operating margin of approximately -49.1%, but this represents a significant improvement compared to the operating loss of $2.469 billion in the first quarter; the segment's adjusted EBITDA turned from a loss of $609 million in the first quarter to a profit of $1.146 billion.

Meanwhile, AI business capital expenditures for the second quarter reached $15.828 billion, higher than the $7.723 billion in the first quarter. SpaceX's total capital expenditures for the second quarter reached $18.369 billion; whether these massive investments can be converted into sustained revenue and cash returns remains one of the market's top concerns.

SpaceX Q2 performance by business segment. Connectivity generated the majority of profits, and AI business capital expenditures reached $15.828 billion. Source: Bernstein

AI computing opens up revenue opportunities; trillions in revenue cannot rely solely on satellite internet.

The most notable change in this earnings call is that Musk moved the target year for achieving $1 trillion in annual revenue from 2031 to 2030, and indicated it could be achieved as early as 2029. Management also set an expectation of at least $100 billion in annualized revenue run rate, though this Bernstein research summary did not specify a corresponding timeline.

To reach this goal, SpaceX clearly cannot rely solely on Starlink user growth. Connectivity must continue expanding its base of individual, enterprise, and government customers; the AI business needs to convert massive computing capacity into long-term contracts and stable revenue; and Starship must reduce the costs of satellite deployment and orbital data center construction.

Among these, AI computing price is the most sensitive variable.

Musk stated that the price of computing services could remain at $30 to $50 per watt, noting that this estimate aligns with the pricing of deals reached by SpaceX and Anthropic, as well as Google. In contrast, Bernstein’s current model still assumes that computing prices will eventually fall to around $10 per watt.

This means that $30 to $50 per watt is not part of Bernstein’s baseline assumptions for their $239 target price, but rather a potential upside scenario. If SpaceX can maintain higher prices while scaling up computing capacity, its future revenue and EBITDA could significantly exceed Bernstein’s current estimates.

However, it remains uncertain whether this price range can be sustained long-term. Factors such as contract terms and cancellation policies, supply and demand in the AI computing power market, semiconductor availability, and competitor expansion could all impact the actual transaction price.

The capacity expansion targets are equally aggressive. By the end of Q2, SpaceX’s nominal computing capacity stood at 1.4 GW; the company expects to exceed 2 GW by the end of 2026, approach 10 GW by the end of 2027, and move toward 20 GW by 2028. If this pace is realized, SpaceX’s business model will extend beyond rocket launches and satellite internet to encompass large-scale AI infrastructure.

Key financial and valuation forecasts. Bernstein expects SpaceX's revenue to be $18.674 billion, $40.236 billion, and $84.990 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with the EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple declining from 245.7x to 37.2x.

The prerequisite for high-frequency launches is the full reusability of Starship.

In SpaceX's valuation framework, Connectivity answers whether there is a current profit base, AI computing answers how fast revenue can still grow, and Starship answers whether long-term scale can be achieved at a sufficiently low cost.

If SpaceX is to approach $1 trillion in annual revenue around 2030, growth in Starlink users alone will not be sufficient. The launch frequency, payload capacity, and degree of full reusability of Starship will directly impact the costs of deploying the next generation of Starlink satellites, building orbital data centers, and expanding other space-based businesses.

Management continues to set highly aggressive progress targets. The company plans to advance Starship orbital flights and V3 satellite deployments, while attempting more complex first-stage and second-stage recovery maneuvers. Its long-term goal is to approach one launch per day by the end of 2027, operating five launch pads—two in Texas and three in Florida.

To achieve this frequency, SpaceX must not only reuse the booster but also solve the recovery of the Starship second stage. Bernstein believes that a durable thermal shield is key to making the second stage fully reusable. Musk has indicated that the 13th flight may have resolved the thermal shield issue, but analysis is still ongoing and further flights are needed to validate it.

Regulatory approvals, launch pad construction, flight accidents, and turnaround cycles may also affect the speed at which Starship transitions from high-frequency testing to industrial operations. Therefore, full reusability remains the most important and also the most uncertain component of Bernstein’s valuation model.

The $239 price target depends on the simultaneous realization of three key themes.

Based on SpaceX's business segments' EBITDA in 2031, Bernstein used a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach and forward EV/EBITDA multiples to calculate the enterprise value for 2030, then discounted each segment's valuation to mid-2027, resulting in a 12-month target price of $239. The Connectivity and AI segments were discounted at late-stage venture capital rates of 25% and 35%, respectively.

Notably, the Bernstein model projects SpaceX’s 2031 revenue at $554 billion, significantly below the management’s $1 trillion target. Its long-term pricing assumptions also still assume a decline to approximately $10 per watt, rather than the $30 to $50 per watt proposed by Musk.

Therefore, the $239 price target does not require SpaceX to fully realize management’s entire vision, but still incorporates strong assumptions about business expansion. It requires at least three key components to materialize: continued growth in Connectivity profits, AI computing transitioning from high capital expenditure to scalable revenue, and Starship completing its fully reusable validation as planned.

After SpaceX's IPO, its stock price declined significantly, but Bernstein maintains a $239 price target and an Outperform rating. Source: Bernstein

This also explains why, despite SpaceX's second-quarter revenue and earnings per share both exceeding expectations, its stock price fell sharply after the earnings release. A single-quarter performance can only demonstrate that current growth remains strong, but it does not directly alleviate market concerns regarding the return on AI investments, upcoming share unlock supply, and Starship execution risks.

If AI computing prices can remain sustained at $30 to $50 per watt for an extended period, Starship’s full reusability stays on track, and Starlink’s individual and enterprise customer bases continue to grow, Bernstein’s current model still has room for upward revision. Conversely, if AI compute contracts fail to materialize, semiconductor supply faces constraints, or Starship progress lags behind expectations, the $239 target price itself could come under pressure.

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