- Bernstein experts said the odds of the CLARITY Act being passed in 2026 are declining.
- If the bill fails, the SEC and CFTC could accelerate crypto rulemaking under Project Crypto.
- Analysts believe regulators will continue to support tokenization, DeFi, and RWA even without a new law.
Bernstein analysts said the likelihood of the CLARITY Act being passed in 2026 is decreasing. At the same time, they expect that if it fails, the SEC and the CFTC will step up work on rules for the crypto industry under the Project Crypto initiative.
The Bill Is Under Threat
According to Bernstein, there is almost no time left to pass the bill before the Senate’s recess begins. Analysts noted that a CLARITY Act failure could trigger a short-term negative market reaction, but it would not mean regulatory reforms are coming to a halt.
Still, Bernstein believes that without a new law, the SEC and CFTC will accelerate the rollout of Project Crypto. In particular, regulators could issue guidance on token classification, rules for DeFi and self-custody, and introduce a so-called “innovation exemption” that would temporarily allow certain tokens to be issued without being treated as securities.
In addition, Bernstein expects that even without the CLARITY Act, US regulators will continue to support the development of tokenized real-world assets (RWA), perpetual futures on such assets, and prediction markets.
At the same time, analysts called a potential failure of the bill “disappointing,” because it could have provided long-term regulatory clarity and encouraged banks, brokers, and exchanges to invest more actively in the digital asset sector.
As a reminder, Grayscale Investments previously appealed to US Senate leadership, urging it to bring the CLARITY bill to a vote before Congress’ August recess.
However, New York Attorney General Letitia James said that the CLARITY Act would limit state-level law enforcement powers, making it harder to combat fraud in the crypto sector. As a result, she urged Congress to introduce stricter rules to regulate the industry.
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