Benchmark Lowers Coinbase Q2 Revenue Forecast Amid Weak Market Activity

Huoxing Finance reports that on July 22, Benchmark lowered its second-quarter earnings forecast for Coinbase ahead of its upcoming earnings release, citing weak trading activity in the crypto market, while maintaining a "Buy" rating and a $270 price target. Based on Coinbase’s approximate stock price of $172 on Wednesday, this target implies about a 57% upside potential. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer reduced Coinbase’s second-quarter revenue forecast from $1.51 billion to $1.38 billion and lowered the full-year 2026 revenue forecast from $6.33 billion to $6 billion. The firm expects Coinbase’s trading revenue to decline by more than 5%, as centralized exchange spot trading volume dropped approximately 28% and the total crypto market cap fell by around 13%. However, signs of initial market stabilization emerged in June, with spot trading volume rising above $1 trillion for the first time since March, potentially mitigating some of the second-quarter weakness. Benchmark believes that if the CLARITY Act is ultimately passed, it could serve as a more significant stock catalyst than a single quarter’s performance, with Coinbase likely being one of the primary potential beneficiaries. Former President Trump has already agreed to related ethical provisions, removing a key obstacle to the bill’s progress.