Written by Xiao Bing
A long-dormant token with a market cap under $300 million suddenly surged in the second week of October. BAT (Basic Attention Token) rose from $0.078 on September 13 to $0.205 on October 13, posting a monthly gain of over 124%. The steepest movement occurred in the final week: on October 9, it spiked 34% in a single day; on October 10, open interest (OI) in perpetual contracts surged 60% within 24 hours; and on October 13, it climbed another 10% in just one hour.
During the entire process, BTC fell 1%, and the total market capitalization of the market decreased by 1.5%. BAT rose against the market trend.
A more significant signal is that while the price is rising, the perpetual contract funding rate remains consistently negative.
This means short positions are more crowded than long positions, with shorts continuously paying fees to longs. As the price rises, shorts are forced to cover their positions, and this covering itself creates additional buying pressure, pushing the price even higher—a classic "short squeeze" scenario.
The question is: Is there any fundamental support behind this market rally?
Within three months, Brave played three cards.
Looking back at the narrative context behind BAT's recent price movement, there is a clear timeline:
On July 9, Brave released the BAT Roadmap 4.0, the largest roadmap update since 2017, with a core shift repositioning BAT from a "token earned by viewing ads" to "the payment infrastructure for attention in the AI era."
Four key product directions launched simultaneously:
First, support for the x402 protocol and the Machine Payments Protocol (MPP) enables AI agents to autonomously execute micropayments within the Brave browser, directly integrating BAT into 2026’s most prominent narrative: AI agents.
Second, BravePay, a privacy-focused payment protocol layer based on stablecoins, supporting self-custody, Brave addresses, and stablecoins compliant with the GENIUS Act.
Third, the Brave Rewards Card, a physical payment card that allows users to earn BAT rewards when making purchases, and also enables them to spend BAT in everyday transactions—effectively extending the use cases of the token from within the browser to offline retail.
Fourth, the Creator Contribution Protocol: when an AI platform uses a creator’s content for training or inference, micropayments are automatically issued to the creator via the BAT blockchain ledger. This aligns with the global public issue of “AI copyright compensation” in 2026.
On August 3, the Brave Rewards Card waitlist officially opened. This is the first tangible product milestone following the release of Roadmap 4.0; although the card issuer and available regions have not yet been disclosed, it provides the community with a concrete goal to look forward to.
In early October, BAT began to be discussed as a candidate chain-key token for Internet Computer (ICP). If implemented, BAT would gain native cross-chain integration capabilities, further expanding its use cases.
The common direction of the three initiatives is clear: Brave is trying to evolve BAT from a "browser reward token" into a "cross-platform payment token." AI micropayments, physical card spending, creator compensation, and cross-chain integration—all these directions are doing the same thing: finding use cases for BAT beyond browser advertising.
Price structure: Is the price surge driven by spot or leverage trading?
The market data presents a set of conflicting signals.
Bullish side: On October 9, BAT surged 34% in a single day, rising from $0.094 to $0.131. On October 12, it climbed another 16% to $0.175. On October 13, it reached $0.205, marking a 33% gain within 24 hours. The daily price structure has completed a swing transition from bearish to bullish, breaking through two key resistance levels: the May high at $0.127 and the February high at $0.139. Trading volume peaked at $51.7M during the rally, confirming strong buyer participation.
A point of caution: Data from October 10 showed open interest surging 60% in a single day, indicating a flood of leveraged positions. By October 12, while prices continued to rise, trading volume dropped by 16%, suggesting weakening spot buying pressure and increasing reliance on leverage. The RSI has reached 87.91, placing it firmly in the overbought range.
A negative funding rate has further intensified this contradiction. Typically, when prices surge sharply, the funding rate should turn positive (indicating long positions are overcrowded). However, in BAT’s case, the opposite is happening: short sellers are still adding to their positions or holding firm, refusing to give up. There are two possible interpretations for this.
Bullish interpretation: Spot buying pressure is too strong, leaving short sellers unable to react in time. Sustained negative funding rates indicate that shorts are being forced to absorb losses, leaving room for further short squeezes. The combination of negative funding rates and rising open interest is a classic sign that the short squeeze is not yet over.
Bearish interpretation: Shorts are not fools. Negative funding rates mean the cost of shorting is decreasing (shorts are actually earning interest), and this structure may indicate smart money waiting to collectively dump the asset once it reaches its target price. Once spot buying demand is exhausted, leveraged longs will be the first to be liquidated.
Looking back from $0.20: What does BAT still need to achieve a "true revival"?
BAT is currently trading around $0.20, and this figure should be viewed within a broader context.
In November 2021, BAT's all-time high was $1.939. The current price is down 90% from that ATH. Even with a 124% increase, BAT is still only rebounding from its historical low and remains approximately 35% below the local peak of $0.302 reached in January 2026.
With a market cap of approximately $300 million and a ranking around #120 on CoinMarketCap, this valuation is significantly undervalued for a token born in 2017 that powers Brave Browser—a product with tens of millions of monthly active users. Brave currently boasts over 50 million monthly active users, and Leo AI has integrated models from Anthropic, Meta, and others. As a project with a real product and established user base, BAT’s valuation has long been dismissed as that of an "old coin without a narrative."
Roadmap 4.0 aims to break this pricing logic. AI micropayments, stablecoin payment cards, and creator compensation agreements each represent narratives aligned with market segments willing to pay high premiums by 2026. However, all of these remain at the roadmap stage. The Brave Rewards Card has opened a waitlist but has not provided a timeline for card issuance. BravePay is a concept in the whitepaper with no code yet. The x402 protocol is listed as "coming soon" with no specific date.
The standard for a legacy coin's revival isn't a price surge—it's whether the narrative can be consistently delivered.
If Brave can launch a tangible product for the Rewards Card or roll out an MVP on BravePay in Q4, this rebound in BAT could shift from "emotion-driven" to "value reassessment." However, if the next three months remain stuck in "roadmap + waitlist" mode, the 124% rally will merely provide short sellers with a better entry price.
The above content is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please assess the risks yourself.