Barclays analyst Dan Levy said a Tesla-SpaceX deal could be announced before Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, potentially by early December this year, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. Tesla and Space Exploration Technologies Corp., known as SpaceX, are both led by Elon Musk. The merger would aim to vertically integrate AI technology.
Levy warned that a timeline slipping into October or perhaps early November could "challenge merger approval". Levy said 11% of outstanding votes during Tesla's 2025 Annual General Meeting were broker non-votes that were effectively counted as votes against. Levy added that Tesla could attempt to increase shareholder participation. Levy's comments could indicate that investors in both companies might not receive adequate time to review a merger proposal and weigh the advantages and disadvantages.
Musk has expressed a desire to hold 25% voting rights in Tesla. A June 2026 filing showed that Musk retains 19.9% voting power in Tesla. SpaceX has a dual-class share structure consisting of Class A and Class B shares. Each Class B share carries voting rights equivalent to 10 Class A shares. Musk holds roughly 85% of SpaceX's voting rights following SpaceX's initial public offering earlier this year. More voting power would help Musk retain greater control over the companies. However, critics warn that greater control could undermine shareholders and erode shareholder voting rights.
Musk has fueled speculation about a Tesla-SpaceX combination by saying the companies collaborate deeply across multiple areas. SpaceX acquired Musk's artificial intelligence startup xAI in February this year. The combined SpaceX-xAI entity was valued at $1.25 trillion following the merger.
Kalshi bettors put the probability of Tesla and SpaceX merging at 19%. Kalshi bettors put the probability of a merger before May 2027 at 52%. Kalshi bettors put the probability of a merger before 2028 at 71%. Polymarket bettors put the probability of a merger before the end of December 2026 at 24%. Polymarket bettors put the probability of a merger before December 31, 2027, at 63%.
SpaceX shares declined 2.08% to $148.99 during overnight trading on Wednesday. Tesla shares declined 1.05% to $363.31 during the overnight trading session.
Barclays Analyst Predicts Tesla-SpaceX Merger by December, Prediction Markets Skeptical
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Summary
Barclays analyst Dan Levy, citing FLASH AI, forecasts a Tesla-SpaceX merger by December 2026 to boost AI + crypto news integration. Prediction markets remain doubtful, with Kalshi and Polymarket pricing the deal at 19% and 24% by May 2027 and December 2026, respectively. On-chain news highlights regulatory and shareholder hurdles. Elon Musk’s dual control over both firms could sway the outcome.
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