Author: Jake Pahor
Compiled by Deep潮 TechFlow
DeepChaohao Summary: Australian trader Jake Pahor publicly discloses his actual portfolio: 100% Bitcoin, zero altcoins. This isn’t a matter of faith—it’s the choice of an ordinary person with a full-time job and family responsibilities, made after suffering heavy losses in the previous cycle. Complex strategies demand significant time costs, and Bitcoin outperformed nearly every altcoin he held last time. He uses the CSH scoring system for dynamic dollar-cost averaging, buying more when the score is lower, with exit points pre-defined in his plan. The true value of this system doesn’t lie in copying it, but in showing you this: only the rules you wrote down during calm moments can help you withstand market emotions at 11 p.m.
Every SMSF (Self-Managed Super Fund) consultation ends the same way.
We’ve completed all the paperwork—the trust deed, bank accounts, custody arrangements, audit records. All the things that keep you out of trouble. Then there’s a brief pause, and I know exactly what’s coming next.
So, should I buy now? Should I wait? What exactly should I buy?
I can’t answer. It’s not that I’m unwilling—I simply can’t. The person asking might be 42 with twenty years ahead, or 68 with only three years left. They might sleep soundly through a 30% drawdown, or crumble at a 10% decline. No one can answer this question for another person; anyone who provides an answer is merely guessing.
But hundreds of people have already asked me this question, and it’s exactly why Tom and I created CSH. So this week, I’m giving you the only honest answer I can: how I personally manage my own money, and the system behind it. Not so you can copy it—so you can see what a system looks like, and then build your own.
All of the following features run on the app's free version.
CSH Risk Dashboard
CSH Score: 25.6/100 — Early Cycle (Stable, +0.7% this week). Ranked in the bottom 22% of all readings since 2011, and has remained in the 20–30 range for 52 consecutive days.
Key Metrics:
BTC: $64,492 USD / A$91,717 (7-day: relatively flat)
BTC dominance: 59.2%
ETH/BTC: 0.029
TOTAL3/BTC (altcoins priced in BTC): 0.37 — Previous cycle lows approached around 0.25
Fear & Greed Index: 26 - Fear
Total market capitalization: $2.27 trillion
Recap: Last time, I said three things must happen before this bear market ends—and none of them have. A week later, it’s still 0-3. The only notable change: BTC has climbed back above the 200-week moving average (around $63,300). Necessary, but far from sufficient.
Jake’s analysis: Two weeks of sideways movement between approximately $62,000 and $66,000, with the score consistently stuck in the low 20s. The market is dull, while macro noise continues. My plan for this week remains unchanged—that’s the plan.
Chart: CSH Risk Score Dashboard, score of 25.6/100, in the early cycle and has remained in the 20-30 range for 52 consecutive days. Source: Crypto Super Hub
How can I invest my own money?
No headline this week. The question above is more important than any news cycle, so here is my answer: three rules.
Rule One: Benchmark Against Two Standards. I track my portfolio using both USD and Bitcoin as benchmarks. The second metric keeps me grounded. If your altcoin doubles while Bitcoin triples, you’re actually losing—you just don’t notice because you’re only watching the USD number. After fifteen years, BTC remains the benchmark for the entire asset class. If I hold anything else, it’s because I genuinely believe it will outperform Bitcoin. Otherwise, why hold it?
Rule Two: Prioritize the Core, Know Your Limits. I currently hold 100% Bitcoin—zero altcoins. This isn’t permanent, but it fits my life. I have a family, a full-time job at an exchange, and I’m still building CSH in my spare time. Altcoin rotation is work for those with the time. I learned this the hard way in the last cycle: holding a pile of altcoins without a plan got me crushed, while Bitcoin quietly outperformed nearly every other asset I held. The lesson isn’t that altcoins are bad—it’s that my portfolio must align with my real life. Start with Bitcoin as your core. Only add complexity when you have the time and skill to handle it.
Rule Three: Let the system buy. My funds are deployed through dynamic dollar-cost averaging based on the CSH score—buy according to plan, but only when the score falls within my 10 to 30 range. Position size is dynamic: the lower the score, the more you buy. At a score of 30, build a moderate position. At a score of 15, the position is several times larger. Every decision was made calmly months ago. The market can’t renegotiate with me at 11 p.m.
The same mechanism runs in reverse. My strategy dynamically sells above the exit range. Writing down the exit rules in the previous cycle was the difference between realizing cycle gains and riding the emotional rollercoaster. Bitcoin has consistently followed a rhythm very close to four years throughout its history. I won’t try to fight it based on intuition.
Where am I this week? Score: 25.6. I’m making regular purchases within the range, and I’m still waiting for a position below 20 that hasn’t appeared yet. I deliberately took no new actions over the past two weeks. Not acting is also a position—this is my current position.
Jake's Workspace
This week’s major update: My Plans has been completely revamped. Email alerts are now live. You can set portfolio goals and watch them fill up. Order history is just two clicks away, and the portfolio view now displays your average purchase price next to the real-time score. It’s becoming the screen I check—not the price.
This is my own plan, directly from a screenshot of the app:
Chart: The author's dollar-cost averaging plan, having purchased 0.2279 BTC since late June at an average price of AUD 87,755, with a target of 2 BTC. Source: Crypto Super Hub
Since the end of June, three orders have been recorded, purchasing 0.2279 BTC toward the 2 BTC goal at an average buy price of AUD 87,755. A quick note to avoid misinterpretation of this screen: this plan only tracks the portion I’ve bought since its launch a few weeks ago. This is a slice of my holdings, not the full picture. But this is the system mentioned above—publicly running, with records accumulating from this point forward.
Next steps on the workspace: CSV upload and exchange synchronization to simplify order tracking.
The discussion about altcoin season is back. My feed is flooded with calls to rotate into alts. The metrics I’m watching say we’re not there yet: altcoin market cap relative to BTC is at 0.37, and it typically spikes to around 0.25 at the bottom of each cycle before alts start outperforming. BTC dominance is still rising, and ETH/BTC remains flat. So if someone pushes altcoin rotation this week, ask them what benchmark they’re using.
Chart: (TOTAL3 - USDT)/BTC trend, with altcoin market cap denominated in BTC at 0.37, having previously touched around 0.25 at the bottom of prior cycles. Source: TradingView
The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday (U.S. time). The probability of holding rates steady is around 85%, but whispers of a rate hike are growing louder. So: unless your plan depends on next month’s rates, this is noise. My plan does not depend on it.
Visa has launched a stablecoin platform that allows banks to issue their own stablecoins without building their own infrastructure. So: this is the purpose of a bear market. While no one is watching, infrastructure is being built.
Morgan Stanley has enabled spot trading of BTC, ETH, and SOL for E*TRADE customers. So: millions of traditional brokerage accounts are now just one click away from Bitcoin. The next wave of buyers won’t come from crypto Twitter. They’ll come from the screens they’re already using.
Watch next week
FOMC decision at 4:00 AM AEST on Thursday. Interest rates are already priced in, so the reaction will depend on the wording. Bidirectional volatility is expected. Volatility is not a signal.
The 200-week moving average is around $63,300. BTC is almost exactly on this line. The market is closely watching whether the weekly close ends above or below this level.
Under 20 minutes. This cycle has still had zero days below 20. This is the trigger I’m waiting for to increase my position. If it happens, you’ll hear about it here first.
A single question gave rise to an entire company: "Should I buy now?" The honest answer has never been a date or a coin—but a system tailored to your life, aligned with your mindset, and written before the market grew noisy.
Mine is above. If you'd like to create your own, the rating and plan builder are free.
I’m curious: reply with a number—what percentage of your current holdings is Bitcoin? Next week, I’ll share the statistics.
See you next week.
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