Author: Flow Brief by Alea Research
Compiled by Deep潮 TechFlow
DeepOcean Summary: In August, Ethereum surged 32%, Bitcoin rose 25%, and gold increased 9.4%, but this rally was far from a “buy anything and profit” scenario. Amid the same rising tide, Ondo fell 11%, and U.S. small-cap stocks barely moved. For investors, the real question isn’t whether assets rose—but who’s swimming naked when the tide goes out.
Cross-asset markets
Cryptocurrencies and gold led in August, while U.S. equities showed significant divergence. BTC rose 25.04%, gold increased 9.43%, and U.S. small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), gained only 0.94%. The gains in crypto assets extended well beyond BTC alone, and gold’s rise was not accompanied by a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields.
August returns for major asset classes: BTC, Ethereum, gold, WTI crude oil, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100.
Cryptocurrency assets rose broadly, while U.S. stocks showed mixed performance. Most tokens gained ground, while stock movements were driven by individual earnings reports and news.
While gold rose, U.S. Treasury yields remained steady, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.75%, unchanged from the beginning of the month.
Tokenomics has become more transparent. Ether.fi has begun recording buybacks, while Ethena has proposed a buyback scheme contingent on supply thresholds.
Commodity markets extend beyond metals. Cocoa, sugar, and wheat have all outperformed gold.
The PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month in July, but the annual overall inflation rate remained at 3.7%, with core inflation at 3.3%. Real consumer spending was flat. BEA data reveals a scenario of weak demand coexisting with persistent inflation.
Daily yield trends for U.S. Treasury bonds in August, covering 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year maturities.
The 2-year yield rose 6 basis points to 4.34%, while the 10-year yield closed at its level at the start of the month. This aligns with the Fed’s emphasis on price stability on August 28.
August USD Index trend.
The U.S. Dollar Index fell only 0.37%. Gold's rise far exceeds what can be explained by currency fluctuations. September's inflation data will help determine whether short-term rates can follow the dollar lower.
ETH rose 32.57%, outperforming BTC's 25.04%. The gains extended well beyond these two leading assets: the median increase among eligible tokens was 16.76%.
August Cryptocurrency Market Map: The 40 largest eligible tokens, scaled by the square root of market capitalization.
Even in a broad rally, clear exceptions remain. Pump.fun rose 115.09%, Ethena rose 86.16%, and Zcash rose 85.40%; Ondo fell 11.23%. Even in a rising market, coin selection still matters.
August CoinGecko Price Outlook: BTC, Ethereum, Ethena, Pump.fun, Zcash, and Ondo.
Ethena's buyback threshold
Ethena’s fee proposal on August 27 stipulates that, after the foundation takes 5% of gross revenue, the first tier will allocate 95% of net revenue to buybacks. The activation threshold is set at USDe supply reaching $7.5 billion, while the current supply disclosed in the proposal is $4.07 billion, indicating a need for approximately 84% additional supply growth. Read Alea’s “ENA’s Claim on Ethena Still Has Conditions.”
Ether.fi's product expansion
Ether.fi's product expansion in August strengthened customer relationships, driving ETHFI up 36.95%. Revenue after deducting rewards and service costs will reveal how much value this expansion actually retained. Read Alea's "ETHFI Buyback Vote."
Ethena's 90-day daily reference price movement, placing August's rally in a longer-term context.
ENA's August closing price was approximately 12.1% lower than its August 27 UTC closing price, despite a strong overall monthly gain. The progress toward achieving the proposal's targets will depend on USDe supply growth and actual buybacks executed.
Pons rose 1,119%, closing at approximately 12 times its starting price.
U.S. stocks: A bull market for a few
The S&P 500 rose 2.62%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 4.18%, significantly outperforming IWM. Among the 49 stocks in the research universe, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Freeport-McMoRan led gains with increases of 28.62%, 21.08%, and 20.93%, respectively. GE, UnitedHealth, and Walmart underperformed, declining 6.77%, 6.03%, and 5.69%, respectively.
Return distribution of 49 U.S. stocks in the research pool as of August, represented by an equal-area square chart.
NVIDIA delivered earnings support for AI demand: quarterly revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, with next-quarter guidance of $108 billion. This midpoint guidance implies a sequential growth of 12.2%. NVDA rose 9.98%, while the semiconductor ETF SOXX increased only 1.22%. The earnings report reinforced NVIDIA’s growth narrative, but the broader sector’s returns indicate uneven distribution of gains. Read Alea’s “When AI Trading Becomes Memory Trading.”
Commodities
Gold rose 9.43% and silver rose 14.98%, but this is only part of the picture. Of the 28 nearby futures contracts, 23 advanced. Cocoa rose 23.22%, sugar rose 21.49%, and Chicago wheat rose 18.34%; orange juice fell 23.04%, lean hogs fell 15.35%, and feeder cattle fell 7.64%. Food and industrial input costs are diverging.
Market landscape of 28 nearby commodity futures contracts as of August 28.
WTI crude oil rose only 1.29%. The primary source of commodity inflation pressure in August came from certain food and metal contracts, with crude oil contributing far less. Delivery dates and contract rollovers also affect nearby futures prices.
Methodology: Compare spot prices between the closing prices on July 31 and August 31. CoinGecko’s reference price range covers UTC 00:00 from August 1 to September 1, encompassing all August UTC closing prices. Cryptographic assets exclude pegged assets and tokenized funds, securities, and commodities; require complete price data for both time points and a minimum trading volume of $1 million on the closing day. Stock breadth covers 49 stocks in the research universe. Futures use vendor-provided daily closing prices. Data sources: CoinGecko, Yahoo Finance, U.S. Department of the Treasury.