According to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, if oil prices continue to rise due to U.S.-Iran tensions, it could trigger a burst in the AI stock bubble and drag down the crypto market. He noted that since November 2022, AI-related debt issuance has totaled approximately $1.5 trillion—equivalent to the $1.5 trillion increase in U.S. M2 over the same period—explaining why Bitcoin has not surged despite the expansion of dollar liquidity. Hayes identifies three key factors that could pop the bubble: rising energy costs, insufficient market capacity to absorb AI-related IPOs, and Trump’s anti-AI stance. He has already sold HYPE, NEAR, WLD, and ZEC, while maintaining holdings in Bitcoin and ETH, and is tactically shorting through derivatives.
Arthur Hayes Warns That Oil Price Hikes and an AI Bubble Burst Could Drag Down the Crypto Market
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Summary
Arthur Hayes warns that rising oil prices and a potential burst in the AI bubble could pressure the crypto market. He connects $1.5 trillion in AI-related debt to U.S. M2 growth, explaining Bitcoin’s subdued reaction. Key risks include energy costs, weak IPO absorption, and Trump’s stance. Hayes has sold HYPE, NEAR, WLD, and ZEC, and now holds only Bitcoin and ETH, while shorting via derivatives. Crypto price movements may reflect broader macroeconomic trends.
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