BlockBeats news, on November 5, Arthur Hayes, in his latest article "D is for Dilution," pointed out that after SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public, insiders and early investors may gradually unlock and sell large volumes of shares, creating sustained equity dilution pressure that could depress stock prices and undermine market confidence in the profitability prospects of the AI industry.
According to its estimates, by the end of June 2027, SpaceX will still have approximately 8.6 billion shares unlocking, equivalent to an additional 50% increase in outstanding shares; early IPO investors in Anthropic may face approximately 83% dilution. For OpenAI, Hayes expects a similar arrangement may be adopted for its IPO, with employee and early investor shares being released gradually after listing.
Persistent pressure on stock prices will impair these companies' ability to raise capital: investors may demand higher bond yields or even refuse to provide funding, leading to increased financing costs in the AI industry and transmitting upward to upstream data center, chip, and related enterprises.
If the AI-related credit market cools or freezes, the expansion of the U.S. banking system’s balance sheet may slow, leading to a contraction in dollar liquidity and putting pressure on the crypto market. Eventually, the Federal Reserve and other major central banks may respond to the crisis by releasing liquidity, which would benefit Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Until then, Hayes says Maelstrom will remain on hold, noting that as data centers come online and computing supply increases, the resulting decline in computational costs could benefit AI projects such as FLOP Network and Genlayer.