Odaily Planet Daily report: Arthur Hayes published an article titled "D is for Dilution," warning that after SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public, they may face significant share lock-up expirations and dilution pressures, potentially depressing stock prices, weakening their fundraising capabilities, and transmitting risks throughout the AI industry via credit markets.
Based on relevant share lock-up expirations, Hayes estimates that SpaceX could add approximately 8.6 billion new shares outstanding by June 2027, representing a roughly 50% increase in share supply; initial investors in Anthropic’s IPO may face dilution of up to 83% during the same period. Hayes believes that sustained weakness in AI giants’ stock prices could prompt bond investors to demand higher yields, raising corporate financing costs and potentially triggering a contraction in the AI-related credit market. Since banks are deeply involved in the AI investment cycle through lending, securities financing, and proprietary trading, a cooling in AI financing demand could slow or even reverse the expansion of bank balance sheets, thereby reducing dollar liquidity and exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
However, Hayes also noted that if the AI bubble ultimately triggers a financial crisis, major central banks and fiscal authorities around the world would respond by expanding monetary policy and providing liquidity, potentially reigniting upward pressure on Bitcoin and other crypto assets.