ME News reports that on November 5 (UTC+8), Arthur Hayes published an article titled "D is for Dilution," warning that after SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI go public, they may face significant share lock-up expirations and dilution pressures, potentially depressing stock prices, weakening their fundraising capabilities, and transmitting risks throughout the AI industry via credit markets.
Based on relevant share lock-up expirations, Hayes estimates that SpaceX could add approximately 8.6 billion new shares outstanding by June 2027, representing a roughly 50% increase in share supply; initial investors in Anthropic’s IPO may face dilution of up to 83% during the same period. Hayes believes that sustained weakness in AI giants’ stock prices could prompt bond investors to demand higher yields, raising corporate financing costs and potentially triggering a contraction in the AI-related credit market. Since banks are deeply involved in the AI investment cycle through lending, securities financing, and proprietary trading, a cooling in AI financing demand could slow or even reverse the expansion of bank balance sheets, thereby reducing dollar liquidity and exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
However, Hayes also noted that if the AI bubble ultimately triggers a financial crisis, major central banks and fiscal authorities worldwide would respond by expanding monetary policy and providing liquidity, potentially reigniting price increases for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. (Source: ODAILY)
Arthur Hayes warns that AI giants' IPOs may cause share dilution and impact the crypto market.
KuCoinFlashShare
Summary
Arthur Hayes warns that upcoming IPOs of AI giants such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI could trigger share dilution and exert pressure on the crypto market. He estimates SpaceX may issue 860 million new shares by June 2027, representing a 50% increase in supply, while early investors in Anthropic could face up to 83% dilution. Weaker performance in AI stocks may push bond yields and borrowing costs higher, reducing credit activity in the AI sector. As banks fund AI projects, slower investment could diminish dollar liquidity, impacting the crypto market. Hayes notes that a potential AI-driven financial crisis might prompt central banks to inject liquidity, potentially shifting the Fear & Greed Index in favor of crypto assets.
Source:Show original
Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information.
Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.