BlockBeats news, on June 9, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, in his latest article "Reality Test," stated that if oil prices continue to rise due to the U.S.-Iran conflict, it could trigger a burst in the AI stock bubble and drag down the entire cryptocurrency market. Oil and other hydrocarbon prices are key variables influencing the investment system. If disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist deep into the second quarter, the third quarter may see significant spikes in spot prices for hydrocarbons and other critical commodities. If oil prices continue to climb and inflationary pressures impact the U.S. midterm elections, Trump may adopt a tougher stance on data center construction, AI regulation, and taxation to gain voter support. He believes the market may not view this as an election strategy, but rather believe that Trump genuinely intends to restrict AI capital expenditures and tax AI companies, potentially triggering a burst in the AI stock bubble.
Hayes also noted that AI has absorbed a massive amount of dollar liquidity over the past few years. He estimates that AI-related debt issuance since November 2022 has totaled approximately $1.5 trillion, while U.S. M2 increased by roughly the same amount during the same period. He argues that this explains why Bitcoin failed to rise significantly despite the expansion of dollar liquidity. Three factors that could burst the AI bubble include rising energy costs, the market’s inability to absorb the IPOs of three major AI-related companies—SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI—and Trump’s shift toward opposing AI. He stated that if AI stocks decline, investors will lack additional funds to buy Bitcoin, banks will tighten lending, and credit contraction will suppress liquidity.
Regarding his portfolio, Hayes stated that the Maelstrom equity portfolio holds significant positions in U.S.-listed energy producers; it has sold off AI-related stocks and non-core crypto assets. HYPE, NEAR, and WLD were sold last week, and ZEC was sold due to the Orchard Pool vulnerability. He still holds Bitcoin and ETH. He believes that the burst of the AI bubble could trigger a financial crisis, leading to large-scale liquidity expansion, which may cause Bitcoin to decline first before rising; he also plans to execute tactical short positions using derivatives.